Dreassi Emanuela
Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze, Viale Morgagni 59, 50134 Firenze, Italy.
Comput Math Methods Med. 2018 Jan 28;2018:4964569. doi: 10.1155/2018/4964569. eCollection 2018.
Lung cancer mortality in Tuscany (Italy) for males, from 1971 and 2010, is investigated. A hierarchical Bayesian model for space-time disease mapping is introduced. Such a model belongs to the class of shared random effect models and exploits the birth-cohort as the relevant time dimension. It allows for highlighting common and specific patterns of risk for each birth-cohort. The results show that different birth-cohorts exhibit quite different spatial patterns, even if the socioeconomic status is taken into account. In fact, there were different occupational exposures before and after the Second World War. The birth-cohort 1930-35 exhibits high relative risks related to particular areas. This fact could be connected with occupational exposure to risk factors for silicosis, perhaps a prognostic status for lung cancer.
对意大利托斯卡纳地区1971年至2010年男性肺癌死亡率进行了调查。引入了一种用于时空疾病映射的分层贝叶斯模型。这种模型属于共享随机效应模型类别,并将出生队列作为相关的时间维度。它能够突出每个出生队列的共同和特定风险模式。结果表明,即使考虑到社会经济地位,不同的出生队列仍呈现出截然不同的空间模式。事实上,第二次世界大战前后存在不同的职业暴露情况。1930 - 1935年出生队列在特定区域呈现出较高的相对风险。这一事实可能与矽肺病风险因素的职业暴露有关,或许也是肺癌的一种预后状况。