Centre for the Business and Economics of Health, The University of Queensland, Woolloongabba, Queensland, Australia.
NHMRC Chronic Kidney Disease Centre of Research Excellence, The University of Queensland, Herston, Queensland, Australia.
Eur J Public Health. 2019 Feb 1;29(1):173-177. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/cky087.
Despite a clear causal link between frequent consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and dental disease, little is known about the implications of a tax on SSBs in the context of oral health. The aim of our study was to estimate the impacts of a SSB tax on the Australian population in the context of oral health outcomes, dental care utilisation and associated costs.
We designed a cohort model that accounted for the consequences of the tax through the mechanisms of consumer response to price increase, the effect on oral health due to change in sugar intake, and the implications for dental care use.
Our results indicate that in the adult population an ad valorem tax of 20% would lead to a reduction in decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) by 3.9 million units over 10 years, resulting in cost savings of A$666 million. Scenario analyses show that the outcomes are sensitive to the choice of the time horizon, tax rate, price elasticity of demand for SSBs, and the definition of target population.
We found that the total and per-person consequences of SSB tax were considerable, both in terms of dental caries (tooth decay) averted and dental care avoided. These results have to be compounded with the implications of SSB tax for other aspects of health and health care, especially in the context of chronic diseases. On the other hand, the improved outcomes have to be weighted against a welfare loss associated with introducing a tax.
尽管频繁饮用含糖饮料（SSB）与口腔疾病之间存在明确的因果关系，但对于 SSB 税对口腔健康的影响知之甚少。我们的研究旨在估计 SSB 税对澳大利亚人口在口腔健康结果、牙科保健利用和相关成本方面的影响。
我们设计了一个队列模型，通过消费者对价格上涨的反应机制、糖摄入量变化对口腔健康的影响以及对牙科保健利用的影响来考虑税收的后果。
我们的研究结果表明，在成年人群体中，20%的从价税将在 10 年内导致龋齿、缺失和填充牙齿（DMFT）减少 390 万单位，节省 6.66 亿澳元。情景分析表明，结果对时间范围、税率、SSB 需求的价格弹性以及目标人群的定义的选择敏感。
我们发现，SSB 税的总后果和人均后果都相当大，无论是在预防龋齿（蛀牙）还是避免牙科保健方面。这些结果必须与 SSB 税对其他健康和医疗保健方面的影响相结合，特别是在慢性病方面。另一方面，必须权衡引入税收相关的福利损失。
