Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, U.S.A.
Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, U.S.A.
Conserv Biol. 2018 Dec;32(6):1368-1379. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13141. Epub 2018 Sep 5.
Increasing anthropogenic pressure on marine ecosystems from fishing, pollution, climate change, and other sources is a big concern in marine conservation. Scientists have thus developed spatial models to map cumulative human impacts on marine ecosystems. However, these models are based on many assumptions and incorporate data that suffer from substantial incompleteness and inaccuracies. Rather than using a single model, we used Monte Carlo simulations to identify which parts of the oceans are subject to the most and least impact from anthropogenic stressors under 7 simulated sources of uncertainty (factors: e.g., missing stressor data and assuming linear ecosystem responses to stress). Most maps agreed that high-impact areas were located in the Northeast Atlantic, the eastern Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the continental shelf off northern West Africa, offshore parts of the tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar, parts of East and Southeast Asia, parts of the northwestern Pacific, and many coastal waters. Large low-impact areas were located off Antarctica, in the central Pacific, and in the southern Atlantic. Uncertainty in the broad-scale spatial distribution of modeled human impact was caused by the aggregate effects of several factors, rather than being attributable to a single dominant source. In spite of the identified uncertainty in human-impact maps, they can-at broad spatial scales and in combination with other environmental and socioeconomic information-point to priority areas for research and management.
人为因素对海洋生态系统造成的压力（包括捕捞、污染、气候变化和其他因素）日益增大，这是海洋保护领域的一大关注点。因此，科学家们开发了空间模型来绘制海洋生态系统累积的人为影响图。然而，这些模型基于许多假设，所纳入的数据存在严重的不完整性和不准确性。我们没有使用单一模型，而是采用蒙特卡罗模拟来识别在 7 种模拟不确定性源（例如，压力因素数据缺失以及假设生态系统对压力的线性响应）下，海洋的哪些部分受到人为压力源的影响最大和最小。大多数地图都认为，高影响区域位于东北大西洋、东地中海、加勒比海、北非大陆架、热带大西洋近海、马达加斯加以东的印度洋、东亚和东南亚部分地区、西北太平洋部分地区以及许多沿海水域。南极洲、太平洋中部和南大西洋的影响较小。模型化人类影响的广泛空间分布的不确定性是由多个因素的综合效应引起的，而不是归因于单一主导源。尽管人类影响地图存在已识别的不确定性，但它们可以——在广泛的空间尺度上，并与其他环境和社会经济信息相结合——指出研究和管理的优先领域。
