a PG Economics Ltd , Dorchester , UK.
GM Crops Food. 2018;9(2):59-89. doi: 10.1080/21645698.2018.1464866. Epub 2018 Jun 11.
This paper estimates the value of using genetically modified (GM) crop technology in agriculture at the farm level. It follows and updates earlier annual studies which examined impacts on yields, key variable costs of production, direct farm (gross) income and impacts on the production base of the four main crops of soybeans, corn, cotton and canola. The commercialisation of GM crops has occurred at a rapid rate since the mid 1990s, with important changes in both the overall level of adoption and impact occurring in 2016. This annual updated analysis shows that there continues to be very significant net economic benefits at the farm level amounting to $18.2 billion in 2016 and $186.1 billion for the period 1996-2016 (in nominal terms). These gains have been divided 48% to farmers in developed countries and 52% to farmers in developing countries. About 65% of the gains have derived from yield and production gains with the remaining 35% coming from cost savings. The technology has also made important contributions to increasing global production levels of the four main crops, having, for example, added 213 million tonnes and 405 million tonnes respectively, to the global production of soybeans and maize since the introduction of the technology in the mid 1990s.
本文估算了农业领域在农场层面使用转基因(GM)作物技术的价值。它延续并更新了之前的年度研究,这些研究考察了对产量、主要生产可变成本、直接农场(总)收入以及对大豆、玉米、棉花和油菜籽这四大主要作物生产基础的影响。自 20 世纪 90 年代中期以来,GM 作物的商业化发展迅速,整体采用水平和影响在 2016 年均发生了重大变化。这项年度更新分析表明,在农场层面上仍然存在着非常显著的净经济效益,2016 年达到 182 亿美元,1996 年至 2016 年期间达到 1861 亿美元(以名义价值计算)。这些收益的 48%分配给了发达国家的农民,52%分配给了发展中国家的农民。大约 65%的收益来自于产量和生产的增加,其余 35%来自于成本的节约。该技术还为提高全球四大主要作物的生产水平做出了重要贡献,例如,自 20 世纪 90 年代中期该技术推出以来,全球大豆和玉米的产量分别增加了 2.13 亿吨和 4.05 亿吨。