PG Economics, Hereford, United Kingdom.
GM Crops Food. 2022 Dec 31;13(1):171-195. doi: 10.1080/21645698.2022.2105626.
This paper updates previous estimates for the global value of using genetically modified (GM) crop technology in agriculture at the farm level. It examined impacts on yields, important variable costs of production, including the cost of the technology, direct farm (gross) income, and impacts on the production base of the main crops where the technology is used (soybeans, corn, cotton, and canola). Over the period 1996 to 2020, the economic benefits have been significant with farm incomes for those using the technology having increased by $261.3 billion US dollars. This equates to an average farm income gain across all GM crops grown in this period of about $112/hectare. In 2020, the farm income gains were $18.8 billion (average of $103/ha). The cumulative farm income gains have been divided 52% to farmers in developing countries and 48% to farmers in developed countries. Seventy-two percentage of the gains have derived from yield and production gains with the remaining 28% coming from cost savings. These yield and production gains have made important contributions to increasing global production levels of the four main crops, having, for example, added 330 million tonnes and 595 million tonnes respectively, to the global production of soybeans and maize since the introduction of the technology in the mid-1990s. In 2020, the extra global production of the four main crops in which GM technology is widely used (85 million tonnes), would have, if conventional production systems been used, required an additional 23.4 million ha of land to be planted to these crops. In terms of investment, for each extra dollar invested in GM crop seeds (relative to the cost of conventional seed), farmers gained an average US $3.76 in extra income. In developing countries, the average return was $5.22 for each extra dollar invested in GM crop seed and in developed countries the average return was $3.00.
本文更新了之前在农场层面估算的全球采用转基因(GM)作物技术的经济价值。研究了对产量、重要生产成本变量的影响,包括技术成本、直接农场(总)收入,以及对使用该技术的主要作物生产基础的影响(大豆、玉米、棉花和油菜籽)。在 1996 年至 2020 年期间,经济效益显著,使用该技术的农场收入增加了 2613 亿美元。这相当于在此期间种植的所有 GM 作物的平均农场收入增长约为 112 美元/公顷。2020 年,农场收入增长了 188 亿美元(平均每公顷 103 美元)。累计农场收入增长中,发展中国家的农民占 52%,发达国家的农民占 48%。其中 72%的收益来自于产量和生产收益,其余 28%来自于成本节约。这些产量和生产收益为提高四大主要作物的全球生产水平做出了重要贡献,例如,自 20 世纪 90 年代中期采用该技术以来,大豆和玉米的全球产量分别增加了 3300 万吨和 5950 万吨。2020 年,如果采用传统生产系统,广泛使用 GM 技术的四大主要作物(8500 万吨)的全球额外产量将需要额外种植 2340 万公顷的这些作物。就投资而言,与常规种子成本相比,每额外投资 1 美元用于 GM 作物种子,农民的额外收入平均为 3.76 美元。在发展中国家,每额外投资 1 美元用于 GM 作物种子的平均回报率为 5.22 美元,而在发达国家的平均回报率为 3.00 美元。