Fasanmi Olubunmi G, Kehinde Olugbenga O, Laleye Agnes T, Ekong Bassey, Ahmed Syed S U, Fasina Folorunso O
Department of Production Animal Studies, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Pretoria, South Africa; Department of Animal Health, Federal College of Animal Health and Production Technology, Ibadan, Nigeria.
Department of Veterinary Public Health & Reproduction, College of Veterinary Medicine, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria.
Res Vet Sci. 2018 Aug;119:127-133. doi: 10.1016/j.rvsc.2018.06.006. Epub 2018 Jun 13.
We conducted benefit-cost analysis of outbreak and surveillance costs for HPAI H5N1in poultry in Nigeria. Poultry's death directly cost US$ 939,734.0 due to outbreaks. The integrated disease surveillance and response originally created for comprehensive surveillance and laboratory investigation of human diseases was adapted for HPAI H5N1 in poultry. Input data were obtained from the field, government documents and repositories and peer-reviewed publications. Actual/forecasted bird numbers lost were integrated into a financial model and estimates of losses were calculated. Costs of surveillance as alternative intervention were determined based on previous outbreak control costs and outputs were generated in SurvCost® with sensitivity analyses for different scenarios. Uncontrolled outbreaks will lead to loss of over US$ 2.2 billion annually in Nigeria with 47.8% of the losses coming from eggs. The annual cost of all animal related health activities was <US$ 99.0 million, only one-third of this amount was linked with H5N1 surveillance and response activities. Recurrent cost was 96.2% of the total surveillance and response costs, and 31.0% of the HPAI surveillance cost was spent on personnel with 3.8% as capital cost. Cost-wisely, routine monitoring and surveillance for HPAI are 68 times more cost effective than to do nothing. Assuming that successful control and eradication of HPAI H5N1 is partially attributable to H5N1 surveillance and response, a quarter or half of the success will result in 17 or 34 times more benefits. Although animal surveillance and response activities for avian influenza appeared expensive, their implementation are economically cost beneficial for developing countries.
我们对尼日利亚高致病性禽流感H5N1在家禽中的疫情及监测成本进行了效益成本分析。疫情导致家禽死亡直接造成了939,734.0美元的损失。最初为全面监测和实验室调查人类疾病而创建的综合疾病监测与应对措施被应用于家禽高致病性禽流感H5N1。输入数据来自实地、政府文件和资料库以及同行评审的出版物。将实际/预测的家禽死亡数量纳入财务模型并计算损失估计值。根据以往疫情控制成本确定作为替代干预措施的监测成本，并在SurvCost®中生成产出，并针对不同情景进行敏感性分析。在尼日利亚，不受控制的疫情每年将导致超过22亿美元的损失，其中47.8%的损失来自鸡蛋。所有与动物相关的卫生活动的年度成本低于9900万美元，其中只有三分之一与H5N1监测和应对活动有关。经常性成本占监测和应对总成本的96.2%，高致病性禽流感监测成本的31.0%用于人员，3.8%作为资本成本。从成本效益来看，高致病性禽流感的常规监测比不采取任何措施有效68倍。假设成功控制和根除高致病性禽流感H5N1部分归因于H5N1监测和应对措施，那么四分之一或一半的成功将带来17倍或34倍的效益。尽管禽流感的动物监测和应对活动似乎成本高昂，但对发展中国家而言，实施这些活动在经济上是有益的。
