Gilbert William, Adamson David, Donachie Daniel, Hamilton Keith, Rushton Jonathan
Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
School of Economics and Public Policy, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2023 Nov 4;2023:1765243. doi: 10.1155/2023/1765243. eCollection 2023.
The natural, accidental, or deliberate release of pathogens into livestock populations carries with it a range of consequences for society, from zoonotic disease outbreaks, to changes in food security and economic welfare. An important contribution to mitigating the risk of disease outbreaks comes from having well-prepared emergency response plans and agencies with the capacity to put those plans into operation. In the case of animal disease, national Veterinary Services (VS) take a central role. Unknown and uncertain events, such as if, when and where the next disease outbreak will occur makes economic decision-making a challenge. While the costs of preparing for emergencies can be quantified in a conventional manner, the scope, scale, and likelihood of benefits actually accruing are all subject to uncertainty. This study attempts to examine the costs and benefits of preparing national VS for animal disease emergencies, including natural, accidental, or deliberate release of pathogens. Data collected as part of the World Organisation for Animal Health's Performance of VS program for countries in East and West Africa and South East Asia were used for estimating investment costs. A state-contingent approach is used to constrain the uncertainty space in terms of disease impact. The probability of a disease event occurring and the probability of that event being contained by emergency preparation are used to describe a frontier at which investment breaks-even in a variety of scenarios. An increased probability of breaking-even on investment was found with high livestock numbers per capita and increasing intensification in livestock production systems. The method and findings provide a means to understand the benefits of preparing for uncertain events and are aimed to further the dialogue around policy development for livestock disease emergencies in lower-income countries.
病原体自然、意外或故意释放到牲畜群体中，会给社会带来一系列后果，从人畜共患病爆发到粮食安全和经济福利的变化。制定完善的应急响应计划以及具备实施这些计划能力的机构，对降低疾病爆发风险具有重要作用。在动物疾病方面，国家兽医服务机构（VS）发挥着核心作用。诸如下一次疾病爆发的时间、地点等未知和不确定事件，给经济决策带来了挑战。虽然应急准备成本可以用传统方式量化，但实际产生效益的范围、规模和可能性都存在不确定性。本研究试图探讨国家兽医服务机构为应对动物疾病紧急情况（包括病原体的自然、意外或故意释放）做准备的成本和效益。作为世界动物卫生组织东非、西非和东南亚国家兽医服务绩效项目一部分收集的数据，用于估算投资成本。采用状态依存方法来限制疾病影响方面的不确定性空间。疾病事件发生的概率以及该事件通过应急准备得到控制的概率，用于描述在各种情况下投资达到收支平衡的边界。研究发现，人均牲畜数量多以及牲畜生产系统集约化程度提高，投资实现收支平衡的概率会增加。该方法和研究结果提供了一种理解为不确定事件做准备的益处的途径，旨在推动低收入国家围绕牲畜疾病紧急情况政策制定的对话。
