Safety Promotion and Injuries Prevention Research Center, College of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, AEOI, Tehran, Iran.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2018 Sep;25(25):24704-24712. doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-2430-3. Epub 2018 Jun 19.
Accidents have happened in the chemical industries all over the world with serious consequences for the adjacent heavily populated areas. In this study, the impact of the probable hypothetical event, releasing considerable amounts of hydrogen fluoride (HF) as a strong irritant into the atmosphere over the city of Isfahan from a strategic chemical plant, was simulated by computational fluid dynamics (CFD). In this model, the meteorological parameters were integrated into time and space, and dispersion of the pollutants was estimated based on a probable accidental release of HF. According to the hypothetical results of the simulation model in this study, HF clouds reached Isfahan in 20 min and exposed 80% of the general public to HF concentration in the range of 0-34 ppm. Then, they dissipated 240 min after the time of the incident. Supposing the uniform population density within the proximity of the city of Isfahan with the population of 1.75 million, 5% of the population (87,500 people) could be exposed for a few minutes to a HF concentration as high as 34 ppm. This concentration is higher than a very hazardous concentration described as the Immediate Danger to Life and Health (30 ppm). This hypothetical risk evaluation of environmental exposure to HF with the potential of health risks was very instrumental for the general public of Isfahan in terms of risk management. Similar studies based on probable accidental scenarios along with the application of a simulation model for computation of dispersed pollutants are recommended for risk evaluation and management of cities in the developing countries with a fast pace of urbanization around the industrial sites.
世界各地的化工行业都曾发生过事故，对邻近人口密集地区造成了严重后果。在这项研究中，通过计算流体动力学（CFD）模拟了一个假想事件的影响，该事件假设一个战略化工厂向伊斯法罕市上空排放大量强刺激性的氢氟酸（HF）。在该模型中，气象参数被集成到时间和空间中，根据 HF 的可能意外释放情况来估计污染物的扩散。根据本研究模拟模型的假设结果，HF 云在 20 分钟内到达伊斯法罕，使 80%的公众暴露在 0-34ppm 的 HF 浓度范围内。然后，它们在事件发生 240 分钟后消散。假设伊斯法罕市附近的人口密度均匀，人口为 175 万，那么 5%的人口（87500 人）可能会在几分钟内暴露在高达 34ppm 的 HF 浓度下。这个浓度远高于被描述为“对生命和健康的即刻危险”的非常危险浓度（30ppm）。这种对 HF 环境暴露的潜在健康风险的假设性风险评估对伊斯法罕的公众来说，在风险管理方面非常有帮助。建议在发展中国家进行类似的、基于可能的意外情景的研究，并应用模拟模型来计算分散的污染物，以评估和管理城市的风险，因为这些城市在工业场所附近的城市化进程很快。
