Nursing Department, Kanazawa Medical University, Kanazawa, Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan.
Division of Health Sciences, Doctoral Course of Graduate School of Medical Pharmaceutical and Health Sciences, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa, Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan.
PLoS One. 2018 Jun 21;13(6):e0199252. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0199252. eCollection 2018.
Tsunamis cause direct damage to property and destroy infrastructure. In addition, power outages can lead to death, especially for patients who rely on medical equipment requiring a power supply. Recently, Nankai Trough Earthquakes have been predicted, and much effort has been put into developing countermeasures in Japan. Kochi City on Shikoku Island is expected to suffer in the event of a large tsunami. The present study identifies individuals living in Kochi who need evacuation assistance and depend on electrical medical devices, simulates evacuation behavior and inundation during a tsunami using a geographic information system (GIS), and considers the usefulness of such a GIS. We asked caregivers, including visiting nurses, to introduce us to homecare recipients who rely on a ventilator, an endotracheal suction device, or other medical devices requiring electric power. We received introductions to 52 homecare recipients. Using a GIS, we plotted the area of predicted inundation and the locations of homecare recipients, nursing stations, and welfare evacuation shelters. We predicted evacuation routes, and then analyzed the time difference between the time required for evacuation and tsunami arrival at a welfare evacuation shelter. To measure the effects of the main parameters, we conducted both one-way and multi-way sensitivity analysis. In the event of a tsunami, eight of the homecare recipients living in the forecasted inundation areas in Kochi may face delayed evacuation. Among homecare recipients facing a high possibility of escape delay, 95.2% lived more than 1,800 m from the nearest welfare evacuation shelter. We found that individual evacuation behavior can be simulated by specifying the residence of a homecare recipient and the evacuation route using a GIS.
海啸会对财产造成直接破坏并摧毁基础设施。此外，停电可能导致死亡，尤其是对于依赖需要电力供应的医疗设备的患者而言。最近，已经预测到了南海海槽地震，日本为此投入了大量精力来制定对策。预计四国岛的高知县在发生大型海啸时将受灾。本研究确定了预计在海啸中需要撤离援助和依赖电动医疗设备的居住在高知县的个人，使用地理信息系统（GIS）模拟了撤离行为和海啸淹没情况，并考虑了这种 GIS 的有用性。我们请包括访问护士在内的护理人员向我们介绍依赖呼吸机、气管内抽吸设备或其他需要电力的医疗设备的居家护理接受者。我们收到了 52 名居家护理接受者的介绍。使用 GIS，我们绘制了预测淹没区域以及居家护理接受者、护理站和福利疏散避难所的位置图。我们预测了撤离路线，然后分析了从撤离到福利疏散避难所到达海啸所需的时间差。为了衡量主要参数的影响，我们进行了单向和多向敏感性分析。在发生海啸的情况下，居住在高知县预测淹没区域的 8 名居家护理接受者可能面临撤离延迟。在面临高延迟逃生可能性的居家护理接受者中，有 95.2%的人距离最近的福利疏散避难所超过 1800 米。我们发现，可以通过指定居家护理接受者的住所和使用 GIS 指定撤离路线来模拟个人的撤离行为。
