Sun S H, Gao Z D, Zhao F, Zhang W Y, Zhao X, Li Y Y, Li Y M, Hong F, He X X, Zhan S Y
The Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China;Beijing Research Institute for Tuberculosis Control, Beijing 100035, China.
Beijing Research Institute for Tuberculosis Control, Beijing 100035, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2018 Jun 10;39(6):816-820. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.06.023.
To analyze the spatial distribution and identify the high risk areas of pulmonary tuberculosis at the township level in Beijing during 2005-2015. Data on pulmonary tuberculosis cases was collected from the tuberculosis information management system. Global autocorrelation analysis, local indicators of spatial association and Kulldorff's Scan Statistics were applied to map the spatial distribution and detect the space-time clusters of the pulmonary tuberculosis cases during 2005-2015. Spatial analysis on the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis at the township level demonstrated that the spatial autocorrelation was positive during the study period. The values of Moran's ranged from 0.224 3 to 0.291 8 with all the values less than 0.05. Hotspots were primarily distributed in 8 towns/streets as follows: Junzhuang, Wangping, Yongding and Tanzhesi in Mentougou district, Yancun in Fangshan district, Wangzuo town in Fengtai district, Tianqiao street in Xicheng district and Tianzhu town in Shunyi district. Spatiotemporal clusters across the entire study period were identified by using Kulldorff's spatiotemporal scan statistic. The primary cluster was located in Chaoyang and Shunyi districts, including 17 towns/streets, as follows: Cuigezhuang, Maizidian, Dongfeng, Taiyanggong, Zuojiazhuang, Hepingjie, Xiaoguan, Xiangheyuan, Dongba, Jiangtai, Wangjing, Jinzhan, Jiuxianqiao, Laiguangying, Sunhe towns/streets in Chaoyang district, Houshayu and Tianzhu town in Shunyi district, during January to December 2005. Incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis displayed spatial and temporal clusterings at the township level in Beijing during 2005-2015, with high risk areas relatively concentrated in the central and southern parts of Beijing.
分析2005 - 2015年北京市乡镇级肺结核的空间分布并确定高危区域。从结核病信息管理系统收集肺结核病例数据。应用全局自相关分析、局部空间自相关指标和Kulldorff时空扫描统计法绘制2005 - 2015年肺结核病例的空间分布并检测时空聚集情况。对乡镇级肺结核发病率的空间分析表明,研究期间空间自相关为正。Moran's I值范围为0.224 3至0.291 8,所有P值均小于0.05。热点主要分布在以下8个镇/街道:门头沟区的军庄、王平、永定和潭柘寺,房山区的阎村,丰台区的王佐镇,西城区的天桥街道,顺义区的天竺镇。使用Kulldorff时空扫描统计法确定了整个研究期间的时空聚集情况。主要聚集区位于朝阳区和顺义区,包括17个镇/街道,如下:朝阳区的崔各庄、麦子店、东风、太阳宫、左家庄、和平街、小关、香河园、东坝、将台、望京、金盏、酒仙桥、来广营、孙河等镇/街道,顺义区的后沙峪和天竺镇,时间为2005年1月至12月。2005 - 2015年北京市乡镇级肺结核发病率呈现时空聚集性,高危区域相对集中在北京的中部和南部地区。