Dominioni Goran, Marasco Addolorata, Romano Alessandro
1Rotterdam Institute of Law and Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Burgemeester Oudlaan 50, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
2Department of Mathematics and Applications, University of Naples Federico II, Via Cintia, 80126 Naples, Italy.
Qual Quant. 2018;52(4):1929-1956. doi: 10.1007/s11135-017-0581-9. Epub 2017 Oct 3.
Globalization and migratory fluxes are increasing the ethnic and racial diversity within many countries. Therefore, describing social dynamics requires models that are apt to capture multi-groups interactions. Building on the assumption of a relationship between multi-racial dynamics and , we introduce an aggregate, contextual, and continuous index of SES accounting for measures of income, employment, expected life, and group numerosity. After, taking into account that groups' SES assumes the form of a , we propose a Lotka-Volterra system to study and forecast the interaction among racial groups. Last, we apply our methodology to describe the racial dynamics in the US society. In particular, we study the kind and the intensity of Asians-Blacks-Natives-Whites interactions in the US between 2002 and 2013. Moreover, we forecast the evolution of groups' SES and how interracial relations will unfold between 2013 and 2018 and in three alternative stylized scenarios.
全球化和移民潮正在增加许多国家内部的种族和民族多样性。因此，描述社会动态需要能够捕捉多群体互动的模型。基于多种族动态与……之间关系的假设，我们引入了一个综合、情境化且连续的社会经济地位指数，该指数考虑了收入、就业、预期寿命和群体数量等指标。之后，考虑到群体的社会经济地位呈现出……的形式，我们提出一个洛特卡 - 沃尔泰拉系统来研究和预测种族群体之间的互动。最后，我们应用我们的方法来描述美国社会的种族动态。具体而言，我们研究了2002年至2013年期间美国亚裔、黑人、原住民和白人之间互动的类型和强度。此外，我们预测了群体社会经济地位的演变以及2013年至2018年期间以及三种替代的程式化情景下种族间关系将如何发展。
