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广义经验贝叶斯建模的频率拟合优度。

Generalized Empirical Bayes Modeling via Frequentist Goodness of Fit.

机构信息

Temple University, Department of Statistical Science, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 19122, USA.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2018 Jul 2;8(1):9983. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-28130-5.

Abstract

The two key issues of modern Bayesian statistics are: (i) establishing principled approach for distilling statistical prior that is consistent with the given data from an initial believable scientific prior; and (ii) development of a consolidated Bayes-frequentist data analysis workflow that is more effective than either of the two separately. In this paper, we propose the idea of "Bayes via goodness-of-fit" as a framework for exploring these fundamental questions, in a way that is general enough to embrace almost all of the familiar probability models. Several examples, spanning application areas such as clinical trials, metrology, insurance, medicine, and ecology show the unique benefit of this new point of view as a practical data science tool.

摘要

现代贝叶斯统计学的两个关键问题是

(i)建立一种原则性的方法,从初始可信的科学先验中提取与给定数据一致的统计先验;(ii)开发一种综合的贝叶斯-频率数据分析工作流程,比两者单独使用更有效。在本文中,我们提出了“拟合优度贝叶斯”的思想,作为一种探索这些基本问题的框架,其方式足够通用,可以包含几乎所有熟悉的概率模型。几个示例,涵盖临床试验、计量学、保险、医学和生态学等应用领域,展示了这种新观点作为实用数据科学工具的独特优势。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/359e/6040203/8a7e6bfb3ecf/41598_2018_28130_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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