Delaware State University, Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 1200N. DuPont Highway, Dover, Delaware, 19901, USA.
Sci Rep. 2018 Jul 2;8(1):9899. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-28302-3.
The breeding season phenology of Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbirds is constrained by subsequent seasons resulting in single-brooded behavior (one successful clutch per year) in some species. Early cessation of the nesting season prior to an active hurricane season will allow for behavioral plasticity during a physiologically challenging migration. Hurricane activity shows a high degree of inter-annual variability. I show that a single-brooded Nearctic-breeding species' (Catharus fuscescens) nesting phenology and clutch size are significant predictors of Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The most skilled predictive model includes both mean clutch initiation date and mean clutch size (R = 0.84). Spearman rank correlation coefficients for both predictors with subsequent major hurricanes (1998-2016) are -0.55 and 0.52, respectively. Therefore, May and June clutch initiation and clutch size showed stronger correlations with subsequent hurricanes than early season (prior to August) meteorological predictions widely publicized by CSU, NOAA, and TSR (≤0.45, 2003-2014). Rainfall anomalies in the southern Amazon basin associated with ENSO cycles are a possible proximate cue affecting phenology and clutch size. This discovery potentially has far-reaching ornithological, meteorological, and social implications and shows that tropical storms significantly constrain breeding season behavior providing renewed evidence that hurricane activity is a primary factor regulating Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird populations.
在某些物种中，近北极-新热带迁徙鸣禽的繁殖季节物候受到后续季节的限制，导致其表现出单窝繁殖行为（每年一次成功的产卵）。在活跃的飓风季节之前提前结束筑巢季节，将使鸟类在生理上具有挑战性的迁徙过程中表现出行为可塑性。飓风活动具有高度的年际可变性。我表明，一种单窝繁殖的近北极繁殖物种（Catharus fuscescens）的筑巢物候和产卵数是累积气旋能量的重要预测指标。最准确的预测模型同时包含平均产卵起始日期和平均产卵数（R = 0.84）。两个预测指标与随后的大型飓风（1998-2016 年）之间的Spearman 秩相关系数分别为-0.55 和 0.52。因此，5 月和 6 月的产卵起始和产卵数与随后的飓风之间的相关性比由科罗拉多州立大学、美国国家海洋和大气管理局以及德克萨斯州立大学系统（CSU、NOAA 和 TSR）广泛公布的早期季节（8 月之前）气象预测更强（≤0.45，2003-2014 年）。与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）周期相关的南亚马逊流域的降雨异常可能是影响物候和产卵数的一个可能的近因线索。这一发现可能具有深远的鸟类学、气象学和社会学意义，并表明热带风暴极大地限制了繁殖季节的行为，为飓风活动是调节近北极-新热带迁徙鸣禽种群的主要因素提供了新的证据。
