Assistant Research Professor in the Department of Real Estate and Built Environment, National Taipei University, New Taipei City, Taiwan.
Disasters. 2014 Apr;38(2):291-309. doi: 10.1111/disa.12048.
This paper provides a framework for evaluating the effects of population ageing on disaster resilience. In so doing, it focuses on the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes, two major disasters that affected Japan before the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. It analyses regional population recovery on the basis of pre-disaster and post-recovery demographic characteristics using defined transition patterns of population ageing. The evaluation framework demonstrates that various recovery measures make different contributions to disaster resilience for each transition pattern of population ageing. With reference to regional population ageing, the framework allows for a prediction of disaster resilience, facilitating place vulnerability assessments and potentially informing policy-making strategies for Japan and other countries with ageing populations.
本文提供了一个评估人口老龄化对灾害恢复能力影响的框架。为此，本文重点关注了在 2011 年东日本大地震之前影响日本的两次重大灾害：1995 年神户地震和 2004 年中越地震。本文根据人口老龄化的既定转变模式，基于灾前和灾后人口特征，分析了区域人口恢复情况。评估框架表明，各种恢复措施对每种人口老龄化转变模式的灾害恢复能力都有不同的贡献。参考区域人口老龄化情况，该框架可以预测灾害恢复能力，有助于评估地区脆弱性，并为日本和其他老龄化国家的政策制定策略提供信息。
