Wang Lu, Yu Chuanhua, Zhang Yunquan, Luo Lisha, Zhang Ganshen
a Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences , Wuhan University , Wuhan , China.
b Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuchang District , Wuhan , China.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2018;19(7):749-754. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2018.1487061. Epub 2018 Oct 1.
This study analyzed the characteristics and burdens of road traffic injuries (RTIs) from the 3 perspectives of time, space, and population in China and predicted traffic fatalities using 2 models.
By extracting data from the China Statistical Yearbooks and GBD 2015 (Global Health Data Exchange), we described the change in the time trend of traffic crashes and economic losses associated with the rate of motorization in China from 1996 to 2015; analyzed the geographical distribution of these events by geographic information system; and evaluated the age-, sex-, and cause-specific death rate, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate, years of life lost (YLL) rate, and years lost due to disability (YLD) rate lost from RTIs from 1990 to 2015. In addition, we predicted the traffic fatality (per population or vehicles) trend using the log-linear model derived from Smeed's and Borsos' models.
From 1996 to 2015, the motorization rate showed rapid growth, increasing from 0.023 to 0.188. With the growth in the motorization rate, the time trends of traffic crashes and economic losses in China changed, showing a tendency to first increase and then later decrease. The crashes and losses were closely correlated and mainly distributed in some of the economically developed provinces, including Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Sichuan, and Guangdong provinces. The health burden of RTIs presented a time trend similar to that of the economic burden, and it was higher among males than females. The death rate among older pedestrians was higher. The DALY rate and YLL rate among young and middle-aged pedestrians were higher. The YLD rate among older motor vehicle drivers was higher. In addition, the fatalities per 10,000 vehicles continued to decline, and Borsos's model was better fitted to the reported traffic fatalities than Smeed's model.
Although the burden of RTIs in China has declined, the burden of RTIs is still heavy. Hence, RTIs remain a universal problem of great public health concern in China, and we need to work hard to reduce them.
本研究从时间、空间和人群三个角度分析了中国道路交通伤害（RTIs）的特征和负担，并使用两种模型预测了交通死亡人数。
通过从《中国统计年鉴》和全球疾病负担研究组2015年数据（全球卫生数据交换中心）中提取数据，我们描述了1996年至2015年中国交通事故时间趋势的变化以及与机动车化率相关的经济损失；通过地理信息系统分析了这些事件的地理分布；并评估了1990年至2015年按年龄、性别和死因分类的死亡率、伤残调整生命年（DALY）率、生命损失年（YLL）率以及道路交通伤害导致的失能所致生命年（YLD）率。此外，我们使用从斯米德模型和博尔索斯模型推导而来的对数线性模型预测了交通死亡人数（按人口或车辆计算）的趋势。
1996年至2015年，机动车化率迅速增长，从0.023增至0.188。随着机动车化率的增长，中国交通事故和经济损失的时间趋势发生了变化，呈现出先上升后下降的趋势。事故和损失密切相关，主要分布在一些经济发达省份，包括浙江、江苏、安徽、四川和广东省。道路交通伤害的健康负担呈现出与经济负担相似的时间趋势，男性高于女性。老年行人的死亡率较高。中青年行人的DALY率和YLL率较高。老年机动车驾驶员的YLD率较高。此外，每万辆车的死亡人数持续下降，博尔索斯模型比斯米德模型更适合所报告的交通死亡人数。
尽管中国道路交通伤害的负担有所下降，但负担仍然很重。因此，道路交通伤害在中国仍然是一个备受公众健康关注的普遍问题，我们需要努力减少此类伤害。
