Center on Population Dynamics & Department of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, J.B. Winsløws Vej 9, DK-5000, Odense C, Denmark.
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 18057, Rostock, Germany.
BMC Public Health. 2018 Jul 4;18(1):831. doi: 10.1186/s12889-018-5730-0.
Reducing lifespan inequality is increasingly recognized as a health policy objective. Whereas lifespan inequality declined with rising longevity in most developed countries, Danish life expectancy stagnated between 1975 and 1995 for females and progressed slowly for males. It is unknown how Danish lifespan inequality changed, which causes of death drove these developments, and where the opportunities for further improvements lie now.
We present an analytical strategy based on cause-by-age decompositions to simultaneously analyze changes in Danish life expectancy and lifespan inequality from 1960 to 2014, as well as current Swedish-Danish differences.
Stagnation in Danish life expectancy coincided with a shorter period of stagnation in lifespan inequality (1975-1990). The stagnation in life expectancy was mainly driven by increases in cancer and non-infectious respiratory mortality at higher ages (-.63 years) offsetting a reduction in cardiovascular and infant mortality (+ 1.52 years). Lifespan inequality stagnated because most causes of death did not show compression over the time period. Both these observations were consistent with higher smoking-related mortality in Danes born in 1919-1939. After 1995, life expectancy and lifespan equality increased in lockstep, but still lag behind Sweden, mainly due to infant mortality and cancer.
Since 1960, Danish improvements in life expectancy and lifespan equality were halted by smoking-related mortality in those born 1919-1939, while also reductions in old-age cardiovascular mortality held back lifespan equality. The comparison with Sweden suggests that Denmark can reduce inequality in lifespans and increase life expectancy through a consistent policy target: reducing cancer and infant mortality.
降低寿命不平等现象正日益被视为一项健康政策目标。尽管在大多数发达国家,随着寿命的延长,寿命不平等现象有所下降,但丹麦女性的预期寿命在 1975 年至 1995 年间停滞不前,男性的预期寿命增长缓慢。目前尚不清楚丹麦的寿命不平等现象发生了怎样的变化,哪些死因导致了这些变化,以及现在还有哪些进一步改善的机会。
我们提出了一种基于死因年龄分解的分析策略,用于同时分析 1960 年至 2014 年期间丹麦预期寿命和寿命不平等的变化情况,以及当前瑞典-丹麦之间的差异。
丹麦预期寿命的停滞不前与寿命不平等的短暂停滞期(1975-1990 年)相吻合。预期寿命的停滞不前主要是由于老年癌症和非传染性呼吸道死亡率的上升(-0.63 岁)抵消了心血管疾病和婴儿死亡率的下降(+1.52 岁)。寿命不平等的停滞不前是因为在这段时间内大多数死因没有出现压缩现象。这两个观察结果都与 1919-1939 年出生的丹麦人较高的与吸烟相关的死亡率有关。1995 年后,预期寿命和寿命均等性同步增长,但仍落后于瑞典,主要原因是婴儿死亡率和癌症。
自 1960 年以来,1919-1939 年出生的人因与吸烟相关的死亡率而使丹麦在预期寿命和寿命均等性方面的改善陷入停滞,而老年心血管疾病死亡率的下降也阻碍了寿命均等性的提高。与瑞典的比较表明,丹麦可以通过一个一致的政策目标来减少寿命不平等现象和提高预期寿命:降低癌症和婴儿死亡率。