French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne, Paris, France.
Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
Int J Epidemiol. 2019 Oct 1;48(5):1593-1601. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyz072.
Venezuela is one of the most violent countries in the world. According to the United Nations, homicide rates in the country increased from 32.9 to 61.9 per 100 000 people between 2000 and 2014. This upsurge coincided with a slowdown in life expectancy improvements. We estimate mortality trends and quantify the impact of violence-related deaths and other causes of death on life expectancy and lifespan inequality in Venezuela.
Life tables were computed with corrected age-specific mortality rates from 1996 to 2013. From these, changes in life expectancy and lifespan inequality were decomposed by age and cause of death using a continuous-change model. Lifespan inequality, or variation in age at death, is measured by the standard deviation of the age-at-death distribution.
From 1996 to 2013 in Venezuela, female life expectancy rose 3.57 [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.08-4.09] years [from 75.79 (75.98-76.10) to 79.36 (78.97-79.68)], and lifespan inequality fell 1.03 (-2.96 to 1.26) years [from 18.44 (18.01-19.00) to 17.41 (17.30-18.27)]. Male life expectancy increased 1.64 (1.09-2.25) years [from 69.36 (68.89-59.70) to 71.00 (70.53-71.39)], but lifespan inequality increased 0.95 (-0.80 to 2.89) years [from 20.70 (20.24-21.08) to 21.65 (21.34-22.12)]. If violence-related death rates had not risen over this period, male life expectancy would have increased an additional 1.55 years, and lifespan inequality would have declined slightly (-0.31 years).
As increases in violence-related deaths among young men (ages 15-39) have slowed gains in male life expectancy and increased lifespan inequality, Venezuelan males face more uncertainty about their age at death. There is an urgent need for more accurate mortality estimates in Venezuela.
委内瑞拉是世界上暴力最严重的国家之一。根据联合国的数据，2000 年至 2014 年期间，该国的杀人率从每 10 万人 32.9 人上升到 61.9 人。这一飙升与预期寿命提高的放缓同时发生。我们估计了死亡率趋势，并量化了与暴力相关的死亡和其他死因对委内瑞拉预期寿命和寿命不平等的影响。
使用 1996 年至 2013 年的校正年龄特定死亡率计算生命表。在此基础上，使用连续变化模型按年龄和死因分解预期寿命和寿命不平等的变化。寿命不平等，或死亡年龄的变化，用死亡年龄分布的标准差来衡量。
1996 年至 2013 年期间，委内瑞拉女性预期寿命增加了 3.57 岁（95%置信区间[CI]：3.08-4.09）[从 75.79（75.98-76.10）增加到 79.36（78.97-79.68）]，寿命不平等下降了 1.03 岁（-2.96 至 1.26）[从 18.44（18.01-19.00）下降到 17.41（17.30-18.27）]。男性预期寿命增加了 1.64 岁（1.09-2.25）[从 69.36（68.89-59.70）增加到 71.00（70.53-71.39）]，但寿命不平等增加了 0.95 岁（-0.80 至 2.89）[从 20.70（20.24-21.08）增加到 21.65（21.34-22.12）]。如果在此期间与暴力相关的死亡率没有上升，男性预期寿命将额外增加 1.55 岁，寿命不平等将略有下降（-0.31 岁）。
由于年轻男性（15-39 岁）与暴力相关的死亡人数增加减缓了男性预期寿命的增长，并增加了寿命不平等，委内瑞拉男性面临着更大的死亡年龄不确定性。委内瑞拉迫切需要更准确的死亡率估计。
