Li Zhen, Liu Miao, Xue Zhen Shan, Hu Yuan Man, Lyu Xian Guo, Li Yue Hui
Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2018 Jun;29(6):1805-1812. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201806.030.
The SanJiang Plain is one of the most concentrated and contiGuous area of marshes, which plays an irreplaceable role in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on the 3S technology, we examined the changes in land use and landscape pattern of the SanJiang Plain from 1980 to 2010. The results showed that marshland area lost 7135 km, with a loss rate of 59.1%. The paddy area increased 18010 km, with a growth rate of 610.1%. The results of landscape indices analysis showed that the number of patches increased, the landscape fragmentation became stronger, the landscape heterogeneity increased, and the different landscape types became homogenized. The CLUE-S model was validated based on the five different periods of land use maps during 1980-2010. The Kappa index between the simulation and actual measurement at the time scale of 30 years was 0.71, indicating that the model was suitable for 30 years simulation in the study area. The future wetland changes in the SanJiang Plain from 2010 to 2030 was simulated with validated CLUE-S models, including historical development scenario, planning scenario, and ecological restoration scenario. The simulation results showed that the marsh land would decrease 2515.44 km and the paddy area would increase 19656.24 km in the historical development scenario. The marsh land would decrease 303.28 km, but the paddy area would increase 1392.08 km in the planning scenario. The marsh land would increase 3585.61 km and the paddy area would increase 289.72 km in the ecological restoration scenario. The landscape patterns of the three scenarios were estimated using landscape indices. The results showed that the landscape pattern fragmentation would become more and more serious in the historical development scenario. The landscape pattern would have no signifi-cant changes in the planning scenario. The wetland area and connectivity would increase, the different landscape types would become balanced, and the landscape pattern would be gradually optimized in the ecological restoration scenario.
三江平原是沼泽分布最为集中和连片的地区之一，在维护区域生态安全方面发挥着不可替代的作用。基于3S技术，我们研究了1980年至2010年三江平原土地利用和景观格局的变化。结果表明，沼泽地面积减少了7135平方公里，减少率为59.1%。水田面积增加了18010平方公里，增长率为610.1%。景观指数分析结果表明，斑块数量增加，景观破碎化增强，景观异质性增加，不同景观类型趋于同质化。基于1980 - 2010年五个不同时期的土地利用图对CLUE - S模型进行了验证。30年时间尺度上模拟值与实测值之间的Kappa指数为0.71，表明该模型适用于研究区30年的模拟。利用验证后的CLUE - S模型模拟了2010年至2030年三江平原未来湿地变化，包括历史发展情景、规划情景和生态恢复情景。模拟结果表明，在历史发展情景下，沼泽地将减少2515.44平方公里，水田面积将增加19656.24平方公里。在规划情景下，沼泽地将减少303.28平方公里，但水田面积将增加1392.08平方公里。在生态恢复情景下，沼泽地将增加3585.61平方公里，水田面积将增加289.72平方公里。利用景观指数对三种情景下的景观格局进行了评估。结果表明，在历史发展情景下景观格局破碎化将越来越严重。在规划情景下景观格局变化不显著。在生态恢复情景下，湿地面积和连通性将增加，不同景观类型趋于平衡，景观格局将逐步优化。
