Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Department of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Jul 24;115(30):E6996-E7004. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1722089115. Epub 2018 Jul 9.
Whether an idea, information, or infection diffuses throughout a society depends not only on the structure of the network of interactions, but also on the timing of those interactions. People are not always available to interact with others, and people differ in the timing of when they are active. Some people are active for long periods and then inactive for long periods, while others switch more frequently from being active to inactive and back. We show that maximizing diffusion in classic contagion processes requires heterogeneous activity patterns across agents. In particular, maximizing diffusion comes from mixing two extreme types of people: those who are stationary for long periods of time, changing from active to inactive or back only infrequently, and others who alternate frequently between being active and inactive.
一个想法、信息或感染是否在整个社会中传播，不仅取决于相互作用的网络结构，还取决于这些相互作用的时间。人们并不总是有空与他人互动，而且人们在活跃时间上也有所不同。有些人长时间活跃，然后长时间不活跃，而另一些人则更频繁地从活跃状态切换到不活跃状态，然后再切换回来。我们表明，在经典的传染过程中，要实现扩散的最大化，需要在各个主体之间实现异构的活动模式。具体来说，要实现扩散的最大化，需要混合两种极端类型的人：一种是长时间处于静止状态，很少从活跃状态变为不活跃状态或再变回来；另一种是频繁地在活跃状态和不活跃状态之间切换。
