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将疾病和人口结构纳入接触网络中 SIR 疾病模型。

Incorporating disease and population structure into models of SIR disease in contact networks.

机构信息

Departments of Mathematics and Biology, Penn State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2013 Aug 19;8(8):e69162. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0069162. eCollection 2013.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0069162
PMID:23990880
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3747198/
Abstract

We consider the recently introduced edge-based compartmental models (EBCM) for the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) diseases in networks. These models differ from standard infectious disease models by focusing on the status of a random partner in the population, rather than a random individual. This change in focus leads to simple analytic models for the spread of SIR diseases in random networks with heterogeneous degree. In this paper we extend this approach to handle deviations of the disease or population from the simplistic assumptions of earlier work. We allow the population to have structure due to effects such as demographic features or multiple types of risk behavior. We allow the disease to have more complicated natural history. Although we introduce these modifications in the static network context, it is straightforward to incorporate them into dynamic network models. We also consider serosorting, which requires using dynamic network models. The basic methods we use to derive these generalizations are widely applicable, and so it is straightforward to introduce many other generalizations not considered here. Our goal is twofold: to provide a number of examples generalizing the EBCM method for various different population or disease structures and to provide insight into how to derive such a model under new sets of assumptions.

摘要

我们考虑了最近引入的基于边缘的隔间模型(EBCM),用于网络中易感染-感染-恢复(SIR)疾病的传播。这些模型与标准传染病模型的区别在于,它们关注的是人群中随机伙伴的状态,而不是随机个体。这种关注点的变化导致了针对具有异质度的随机网络中 SIR 疾病传播的简单分析模型。在本文中,我们将这种方法扩展到处理疾病或人群对早期工作中简单假设的偏差。我们允许人口由于人口特征或多种风险行为类型等因素而具有结构。我们允许疾病具有更复杂的自然史。尽管我们在静态网络环境中引入了这些修改,但将它们合并到动态网络模型中非常简单。我们还考虑了血清分类,这需要使用动态网络模型。我们用于推导这些推广的基本方法具有广泛的适用性,因此很容易引入许多此处未考虑的其他推广。我们的目标是双重的:提供一些示例,将 EBCM 方法推广到各种不同的人口或疾病结构,并深入了解如何在新的假设集下推导这样的模型。

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