Biomarkers for Predicting Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma in a Mexican Population.

Diagnosis of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) remains a challenge, especially when resources in pathology are limited. The study aimed to evaluate cost-effective tumor markers to predict the probability of MPM in plasma samples in order to accelerate the diagnostic workup of the tissue of potential cases. We conducted a case-control study stratified by gender, which included 75 incident cases with MPM from three Mexican hospitals and 240 controls frequency-matched by age and year of blood drawing. Plasma samples were obtained to determine mesothelin, calretinin, and thrombomodulin using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs). We estimated the performance of the markers based on the area under the curve (AUC) and predicted the probability of an MPM diagnosis of a potential case based on the marker concentrations. Mesothelin and calretinin, but not thrombomodulin were significant predictors of a diagnosis of MPM with AUCs of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.95), 0.88 (95% CI: 0.82-0.94), and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.41-0.61) in males, respectively. For MPM diagnosis in men we estimated a true positive rate of 0.79 and a false positive rate of 0.11 for mesothelin. The corresponding figures for calretinin were 0.81 and 0.18, and for both markers combined 0.84 and 0.11, respectively. We developed prediction models based on plasma concentrations of mesothelin and calretinin to estimate the probability of an MPM diagnosis. Both markers showed a good performance and could be used to accelerate the diagnostic workup of tissue samples in Mexico.