Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Taiwan Cancer Registry, Taipei, Taiwan.
J Formos Med Assoc. 2019 Jan;118(1 Pt 3):444-449. doi: 10.1016/j.jfma.2018.07.001. Epub 2018 Jul 14.
BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Liver cancer is the second most common cancer in Taiwan. Research on projected cancer incident rates can facilitate appropriate public health planning, and incidence rate studies can offer insights and enable hypotheses about the etiology of particular cancers.
Age-period-cohort models are used to estimate incidence trends in liver cancer from 1997 to 2014 and project trends up to 2035.
For men, the age-adjusted incidence rate showed an increasing trend from 1997, which peaked in 2004 (157.6 cases per 100,000 population), and a decreasing trend thereafter. The age-adjusted incidence rate is projected to decrease by 22.2% from 2014 to 2025 and by 37.3% from 2014 to 2035. For women, the age-adjusted incidence rate also showed an increasing trend from 1997, which peaked in 2004 (63.4 cases per 100,000 population), and a decreasing trend thereafter. The age-adjusted incidence rate is projected to decrease by 17.5% from 2014 to 2025 and by 27% from 2014 to 2035.
This study revealed a reduction in the incidence rate of liver cancer for both sexes after 2004, and a further decrease until 2035 is projected.
背景/目的：肝癌是中国台湾第二大常见癌症。对预估癌症发病率的研究有助于进行适当的公共卫生规划，且发病率研究可以提供对特定癌症病因的深入了解和假设。
采用年龄-时期-队列模型来估计 1997 年至 2014 年肝癌的发病率趋势，并预测至 2035 年的趋势。
对于男性，校正年龄后的发病率从 1997 年开始呈上升趋势，在 2004 年达到峰值（每 10 万人中有 157.6 例），此后呈下降趋势。预计从 2014 年到 2025 年，校正年龄后的发病率将下降 22.2%，从 2014 年到 2035 年将下降 37.3%。对于女性，校正年龄后的发病率也从 1997 年开始呈上升趋势，在 2004 年达到峰值（每 10 万人中有 63.4 例），此后呈下降趋势。预计从 2014 年到 2025 年，校正年龄后的发病率将下降 17.5%，从 2014 年到 2035 年将下降 27%。
本研究显示，2004 年后男性和女性的肝癌发病率均有所下降，预计到 2035 年还将进一步下降。
