1997 年至 2014 年台湾肝癌发病率的长期趋势及 2035 年预测：一项年龄-时期-队列分析。

Secular trends in liver cancer incidence from 1997 to 2014 in Taiwan and projection to 2035: An age-period-cohort analysis.

机构信息

Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.

Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Taiwan Cancer Registry, Taipei, Taiwan.

出版信息

J Formos Med Assoc. 2019 Jan;118(1 Pt 3):444-449. doi: 10.1016/j.jfma.2018.07.001. Epub 2018 Jul 14.

DOI:10.1016/j.jfma.2018.07.001

PMID:30017535

Abstract

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Liver cancer is the second most common cancer in Taiwan. Research on projected cancer incident rates can facilitate appropriate public health planning, and incidence rate studies can offer insights and enable hypotheses about the etiology of particular cancers.

METHODS

Age-period-cohort models are used to estimate incidence trends in liver cancer from 1997 to 2014 and project trends up to 2035.

RESULTS

For men, the age-adjusted incidence rate showed an increasing trend from 1997, which peaked in 2004 (157.6 cases per 100,000 population), and a decreasing trend thereafter. The age-adjusted incidence rate is projected to decrease by 22.2% from 2014 to 2025 and by 37.3% from 2014 to 2035. For women, the age-adjusted incidence rate also showed an increasing trend from 1997, which peaked in 2004 (63.4 cases per 100,000 population), and a decreasing trend thereafter. The age-adjusted incidence rate is projected to decrease by 17.5% from 2014 to 2025 and by 27% from 2014 to 2035.

CONCLUSION

This study revealed a reduction in the incidence rate of liver cancer for both sexes after 2004, and a further decrease until 2035 is projected.

摘要

背景/目的：肝癌是中国台湾第二大常见癌症。对预估癌症发病率的研究有助于进行适当的公共卫生规划，且发病率研究可以提供对特定癌症病因的深入了解和假设。

方法

采用年龄-时期-队列模型来估计 1997 年至 2014 年肝癌的发病率趋势，并预测至 2035 年的趋势。

结果

对于男性，校正年龄后的发病率从 1997 年开始呈上升趋势，在 2004 年达到峰值（每 10 万人中有 157.6 例），此后呈下降趋势。预计从 2014 年到 2025 年，校正年龄后的发病率将下降 22.2%，从 2014 年到 2035 年将下降 37.3%。对于女性，校正年龄后的发病率也从 1997 年开始呈上升趋势，在 2004 年达到峰值（每 10 万人中有 63.4 例），此后呈下降趋势。预计从 2014 年到 2025 年，校正年龄后的发病率将下降 17.5%，从 2014 年到 2035 年将下降 27%。