Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Rm. 536, No. 17, Xuzhou Rd., Taipei, 100, Taiwan.
Innovation and Policy Center for Population Health and Sustainable Environment, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Sci Rep. 2022 Jul 21;12(1):12481. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-16056-y.
Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate has doubled in just 20 years, causing considerable concern to health professionals and the general public. This study used an ensemble of age-period-cohort models to estimate breast cancer incidence trends in Taiwan from 1997 to 2016 and project trends up to 2035. The (truncated) world standard population (World Health Organization 2000) proportions (age groups: 25-29, 30-34, …, 80-84, and older than 85 years) were used to calculate age-standardized incidence rates. The age-standardized incidence rate from 1997 (60.33/100,000 population) to 2016 (128.20/100,000 population) increased rapidly. The projection is that the increase in the age-standardized incidence will subsequently slow and exhibit a plateau in 2031 (151.32/100,000 population). From 2026 to 2035, the age-specific incidence rates for women older than 55 years old (postmenopausal breast cancer) are projected to increase with larger percentage increments for older women. A future leveling of female breast cancer incidence trends in Taiwan is anticipated. The majority of the patients with breast cancer in the future will be women aged 55 years and older. Education on lifestyle recommendations and mammography screening is required to reduce the burden of breast cancer. The results should have implications for other countries which are also confronted with the same public health problem of rapidly increasing breast cancer incidences.
台湾地区女性的乳腺癌发病率居所有癌症之首。仅仅 20 年内，年龄标准化发病率就翻了一番，这引起了卫生专业人员和公众的极大关注。本研究采用年龄-时期-队列模型的集合来估计 1997 年至 2016 年台湾地区乳腺癌的发病率趋势，并预测至 2035 年的趋势。使用（截断的）世界标准人口（世界卫生组织 2000 年）比例（年龄组：25-29 岁、30-34 岁、…、80-84 岁和 85 岁以上）来计算年龄标准化发病率。1997 年（60.33/100,000 人口）至 2016 年（128.20/100,000 人口）的年龄标准化发病率迅速上升。预计随后发病率的增长将会放缓，并在 2031 年（151.32/100,000 人口）达到平台期。从 2026 年到 2035 年，预计 55 岁以上女性（绝经后乳腺癌）的特定年龄发病率将随着老年女性的百分比增加而增加。预计台湾地区女性乳腺癌的发病趋势将趋于平稳。未来，大多数乳腺癌患者将是 55 岁及以上的女性。需要开展有关生活方式建议和乳房 X 线筛查的教育，以降低乳腺癌的负担。这些结果应该对其他也面临乳腺癌发病率迅速上升这一公共卫生问题的国家具有启示意义。
