World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department, World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris, France.
UMR EPIA, INRA VetAgro Sup, Marcy l'Etoile, France.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2018 Dec;65(6):2006-2016. doi: 10.1111/tbed.12986. Epub 2018 Aug 27.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is of major importance for human and animal health because of high morbidity and mortality in poultry and the potential for transmission of this zoonotic pathogen to humans. Knowledge of HPAI epidemiology in avian populations and practical information on the temporal and spatial spread of the disease after introduction into a country is important in order to enhance the capacity of predicting and managing epidemics to minimize the negative impacts on human and animal health. Using data reported to the World Organisation for Animal Health between 2005 and 2017 by 199 countries for 14,129 outbreaks in poultry, we used a spatial and time-series analysis to determine that: (a) During the last 12 years, there were two major global peaks in the number of countries affected by HPAI with 23% and 26% of countries affected in 2006 and 2016. (b) Based on the seasonality analysis, spread is the lowest in September, begins to rise in October, and peaks in February. (c) The median distance HPAI outbreaks spread from the index outbreak was 111 km, while the median apparent rate of spread of outbreaks was 1.9 km/day. (d) In 39% of HPAI events, the disease did not spread beyond the index outbreak and the median maximum spread from the index outbreak per event was 45 km. (e) The distance HPAI outbreaks spread from the index outbreak was significantly negatively correlated with the number of outbreaks during the same time period, indicating that the spread of HPAI was lower during global panzootics than during periods of low transmission. These findings are of major importance for veterinary services to design and implement surveillance measures for improving preparedness to minimize the impacts of this disease.
高致病性禽流感（HPAI）对人类和动物健康具有重要意义，因为其在禽类中具有高发病率和死亡率，并且这种人畜共患病病原体有可能传播给人类。了解禽类中 HPAI 的流行病学以及在疾病传入一个国家后疾病在时间和空间上的传播情况，对于提高预测和管理疫情的能力以最大程度减少对人类和动物健康的负面影响至关重要。我们使用了世界动物卫生组织（World Organisation for Animal Health）在 2005 年至 2017 年期间收到的 199 个国家报告的 14129 起家禽暴发的数据，采用时空分析来确定：（a）在过去的 12 年中，有两个 HPAI 全球暴发的主要高峰期，2006 年和 2016 年有 23%和 26%的国家受到影响。（b）基于季节性分析，传播在 9 月最低，10 月开始上升，2 月达到峰值。（c）HPAI 暴发从索引暴发点传播的中位数距离为 111 公里，而暴发的中位数明显传播速度为 1.9 公里/天。（d）在 39%的 HPAI 事件中，疾病没有超出索引暴发点传播，每个事件中从索引暴发点的最大传播中位数为 45 公里。（e）HPAI 暴发从索引暴发点传播的距离与同期暴发的数量呈显著负相关，这表明在全球大流行期间，HPAI 的传播速度低于低传播期间。这些发现对于兽医服务部门设计和实施监测措施以提高防范能力，最大程度减少这种疾病的影响具有重要意义。
