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中国空气污染健康成本核算研究综述。

A review on health cost accounting of air pollution in China.

机构信息

Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.

出版信息

Environ Int. 2018 Nov;120:279-294. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.08.001. Epub 2018 Aug 10.

Abstract

Over the last three decades, rapid industrialization in China has generated an unprecedentedly high level of air pollution and associated health problems. Given that China accounts for one-fifth of the world population and suffers from severe air pollution, a comprehensive review of the indicators accounting for the health costs in relation to air pollution will benefit evidence-based and health-related environmental policy-making. This paper reviews the conventional static and the new dynamic approach adopted for air pollution-related health cost accounting in China and analyzes the difference between the two in estimating GDP loss. The advantages of adopting the dynamic approach for health cost accounting in China, with conditions guaranteeing its optimal performance are highlighted. Guidelines on how one can identify an appropriate approach for health cost accounting in China are put forward. Further, we outline and compare the globally-applicable and China-specific indicators adopted by different accounting methodologies, with their pros and cons being discussed. A comprehensive account of the available databases and methodologies for health cost accounting in China are outlined. Future directions to guide health cost accounting in China are provided. Our work provides valuable insights into future health cost accounting research in China. Our study has strengthen the view that the dynamic approach is comparatively more preferred than the static approach for health cost accounting in China, if more data is available to train the dynamic models and improve the robustness of the parameters employed. In addition, future dynamic model should address the socio-economic impacts, including benefits or losses of air pollution polices, to provide a more robust policy picture. Our work has laid the key principles and guidelines for selecting proper econometric approaches and parameters. We have also identified a proper estimation method for the Value of Life in China, and proposed the integration of engineering approaches, such as the use of deep learning and big data analysis for health cost accounting at the fine-grained level (city-district or sub-regional level). Our work has also identified the gap for more accurate health cost accounting at the fine-grained level in China, which will subsequently affect the quality of health-related air pollution policy decision-making at such levels, and the health-related quality of life of the citizens in China.

摘要

在过去的三十年中,中国的快速工业化带来了前所未有的高水平空气污染和相关的健康问题。鉴于中国占世界人口的五分之一,且空气污染严重,全面审查与空气污染相关的健康成本指标将有利于基于证据和与健康相关的环境决策。本文回顾了中国采用的传统静态和新的动态方法来核算与空气污染相关的健康成本,并分析了这两种方法在估算 GDP 损失方面的差异。强调了在中国采用动态方法核算健康成本的优势,并提出了在保证其最佳性能的条件下采用这种方法的建议。提出了如何在中国确定适当的健康成本核算方法的指导方针。此外,我们还概述并比较了不同核算方法采用的全球适用和中国特有的指标,讨论了它们的优缺点。概述了中国健康成本核算可用的数据库和方法。为中国的健康成本核算提供了未来的方向。我们的工作为中国未来的健康成本核算研究提供了有价值的见解。我们的研究加强了这样一种观点,即在有更多数据来训练动态模型并提高所采用参数的稳健性的情况下,与静态方法相比,动态方法在中国的健康成本核算中更受青睐。此外,未来的动态模型应该考虑社会经济影响,包括空气污染政策的收益或损失,以提供更稳健的政策图景。我们的工作为选择适当的计量经济学方法和参数奠定了关键原则和指导方针。我们还确定了中国生命价值的适当估计方法,并提出了将工程方法(如深度学习和大数据分析)纳入健康成本核算的建议,以实现更精细的(城市-区或次区域)水平。我们的工作还发现,在中国需要更准确地进行精细水平的健康成本核算,这将继而影响到这些层面的与健康相关的空气污染政策决策的质量,以及中国公民的健康相关生活质量。

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