School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China; School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Jan 15;648:460-471. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.433. Epub 2018 Aug 2.
The combined and individual hydrological impacts of climate variation and urbanization have been extensively discussed over the past few decades, yet little is known about the relative impact of each. In this paper we took one of the most developed regions worldwide, Yangtze River Delta, as an example to analyse the long-term relative impacts of precipitation and urbanization change on water level alterations, based on precipitation, water level series, and annual impervious area data from 1960 to 2015. Abrupt changes detection in the water level series divided the data into the pre-impact period (1960-1988) and impacted period (1989-2015), and relative impacts of precipitation and urbanization on the water level increase from pre-impacted to impacted period, as well as their spatial and seasonal variations were estimated with the elasticity method. The results indicated that the urbanization change showed no distinct influence on the water level rise in the pre-impact period, while the precipitation played distinct roles only during summer months in the impacted period; the precipitation dominated two thirds of the water level rise in flood season, and in non-flood season the urbanization controlled the two thirds of the water level rise; spatially, the water level variations in old and new urban area were dominated by precipitation and urbanization process respectively; compared with precipitation amount, the water level correlated more strongly to the contribution ratio of precipitation. The results would provide a good reference for flood control and water resource management in the river basin, especially in the economically developed areas.
在过去的几十年中，人们广泛讨论了气候变化和城市化对水文的综合和单独影响，但对于每种影响的相对重要性知之甚少。本文以全球最发达的地区之一——长江三角洲为例，基于 1960 年至 2015 年的降水、水位序列和年不透水面面积数据，分析了降水和城市化变化对水位变化的长期相对影响。通过水位序列的突变检测，将数据分为影响前时期（1960-1988 年）和影响时期（1989-2015 年），并采用弹性方法估计了降水和城市化对从影响前到影响后水位上升的相对影响，以及它们的空间和季节性变化。结果表明，在影响前时期，城市化变化对水位上升没有明显影响，而降水仅在影响时期的夏季发挥了明显作用；降水主导了洪水季节水位上升的三分之二，在非洪水季节，城市化控制了水位上升的三分之二；在空间上，老城区和新城区的水位变化分别受降水和城市化过程的控制；与降水量相比，水位与降水贡献率的相关性更强。这些结果将为流域的防洪和水资源管理提供良好的参考，特别是在经济发达地区。
