Lyon Sarina F, Merrill Nathaniel H, Mulvaney Kate K, Mazzotta Marisa J
United States Environmental Protection Agency.
J Ocean Coast Econ. 2018 May 31;5(1):1. doi: 10.15351/2373-8456.1086.
Each year, millions of Americans visit beaches for recreation, resulting in significant social welfare benefits and economic activity. Considering the high use of coastal beaches for recreation, closures due to bacterial contamination have the potential to greatly impact coastal visitors and communities. We used readily-available information to develop two transferable models that, together, provide estimates for the value of a beach day as well as the lost value due to a beach closure. We modeled visitation for beaches in Barnstable, Massachusetts on Cape Cod through panel regressions to predict visitation by type of day, for the season, and for lost visits when a closure was posted. We used a meta-analysis of existing studies conducted throughout the United States to estimate a consumer surplus value of a beach visit of around $22 for our study area, accounting for water quality at beaches by using past closure history. We applied this value through a benefit transfer to estimate the value of a beach day, and combined it with lost town revenue from parking to estimate losses in the event of a closure. The results indicate a high value for beaches as a public resource and show significant losses to the town when beaches are closed due to an exceedance in bacterial concentrations.
每年,数以百万计的美国人前往海滩休闲娱乐,带来了可观的社会福利效益和经济活动。鉴于沿海海滩被大量用于休闲娱乐,因细菌污染而关闭海滩有可能对沿海游客和社区产生重大影响。我们利用现有的信息开发了两个可移植模型,这两个模型共同提供了对海滩日价值以及海滩关闭造成的价值损失的估计。我们通过面板回归对马萨诸塞州科德角巴恩斯特布尔的海滩游客量进行建模,以预测不同日期类型、季节的游客量,以及发布海滩关闭通知时的游客量损失。我们对美国各地进行的现有研究进行了荟萃分析,以估计我们研究区域内海滩游览的消费者剩余价值约为22美元,通过使用过去的关闭历史记录来考虑海滩的水质情况。我们通过效益转移应用这一价值来估计海滩日的价值,并将其与因停车导致的城镇收入损失相结合,以估计关闭海滩时的损失。结果表明海滩作为一种公共资源具有很高的价值,并且当海滩因细菌浓度超标而关闭时,城镇会遭受重大损失。