Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA.
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, 91109, USA.
Sci Rep. 2018 Aug 27;8(1):12917. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-31210-1.
Accurate and detailed knowledge of California's groundwater is of paramount importance for statewide water resources planning and management, and to sustain a multi-billion-dollar agriculture industry during prolonged droughts. In this study, we use water supply and demand information from California's Department of Water Resources to develop an aggregate groundwater storage model for California's Central Valley. The model is evaluated against 34 years of historic estimates of changes in groundwater storage derived from the United States Geological Survey's Central Valley Hydrologic Model (USGS CVHM) and NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (NASA GRACE) satellites. The calibrated model is then applied to predict future changes in groundwater storage for the years 2015-2050 under various precipitation scenarios from downscaled climate projections. We also discuss and project potential management strategies across different annual supply and demand variables and how they affect changes in groundwater storage. All simulations support the need for collective statewide management intervention to prevent continued depletion of groundwater availability.
准确而详细的加利福尼亚地下水知识对于全州水资源规划和管理至关重要，对于在长期干旱期间维持数十亿美元的农业产业也至关重要。在这项研究中，我们使用加利福尼亚水资源部的供水和需求信息，为加利福尼亚中央谷地开发了一个综合地下水储存模型。该模型通过与美国地质调查局（USGS）中央谷水文模型（USGS CVHM）和美国国家航空航天局（NASA）重力恢复和气候实验（NASA GRACE）卫星得出的 34 年历史地下水储量变化的估算值进行了评估。然后，将校准后的模型应用于根据从气候降尺度预测得出的各种降水情景，预测 2015-2050 年地下水储存的未来变化。我们还讨论并预测了不同年度供需变量的潜在管理策略，以及它们如何影响地下水储存的变化。所有模拟都支持全州范围内进行集体管理干预的必要性，以防止地下水供应的持续枯竭。
