MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China.
Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 Aug 29;15(9):1868. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15091868.
Although the impacts of built environment on car ownership and use have been extensively studied, limited evidence has been offered for the role of spatial effects in influencing the interaction between built environment and travel behavior. Ignoring the spatial effects may lead to misunderstanding the role of the built environment and providing inconsistent transportation policies. In response to this, we try to employ a two-step modeling approach to investigate the impacts of built environment on car ownership and use by combining multilevel Bayesian model and conditional autocorrelation (CAR) model to control for spatial autocorrelation. In the two-step model, the predicting car ownership status in the first-step model is used as a mediating variable in the second-step car use model. Taking Changchun as a case study, this paper identifies the presence of spatial effects in influencing the effects of built environment on car ownership and use. Meanwhile, the direct and cascading effects of built environment on car ownership and use are revealed. The results show that the spatial autocorrelation exists in influencing the interaction between built environment and car dependency. The results suggest that it is necessary for urban planners to pay attention to the spatial effects and make targeted policy according to local land use characteristics.
尽管建筑环境对汽车拥有和使用的影响已经得到了广泛的研究，但对于空间效应对影响建筑环境与出行行为之间相互作用的作用，提供的证据有限。忽略空间效应可能会导致对建筑环境作用的误解，并提供不一致的交通政策。针对这一问题，我们尝试采用两步建模方法，通过结合多层次贝叶斯模型和条件自相关 (CAR) 模型来控制空间自相关，来研究建筑环境对汽车拥有和使用的影响。在两步模型中，第一步模型中预测的汽车拥有状况被用作第二步汽车使用模型中的中介变量。以长春为例，本文确定了空间效应在影响建筑环境对汽车拥有和使用的影响方面的存在。同时，揭示了建筑环境对汽车拥有和使用的直接和级联效应。结果表明，空间自相关对建筑环境与汽车依赖之间相互作用的影响存在。结果表明，城市规划者有必要关注空间效应，并根据当地土地利用特点制定有针对性的政策。
