Clinical Health and Nutrition Centre (CHANCE), Department of Health and Nutritional Science, Institute of Technology Sligo, Ireland.
Public Health Modelling, UK Health Forum, London, UK.
Scand J Public Health. 2020 Jun;48(4):422-427. doi: 10.1177/1403494818794814. Epub 2018 Aug 30.
Morbid obesity (body mass index ⩾40 kg/m) carries a higher risk of non-communicable disease and is associated with more complex health issues and challenges than obesity body mass index ≥30kg/m2 and <40kg/m2, resulting in much higher financial implications for health systems. Although obesity trends have previously been projected to 2035, these projections do not separate morbid obesity from obesity. This study therefore complements these projections and looks at the prevalence and development of morbid obesity in the UK. : Individual level body mass index data for people aged >15 years in England, Wales (2004-2014) and Scotland (2008-2014) were collated from national surveys and stratified by sex and five-year age groups (e.g. 15-19 years), then aggregated to calculate the annual distribution of healthy weight, overweight, obesity and morbid obesity for each age and sex group. A categorical multi-variate non-linear regression model was fitted to these distributions to project trends to 2035. : The prevalence of morbid obesity was predicted to increase to 5, 8 and 11% in Scotland, England and Wales, respectively, by 2035. Welsh women aged 55-64 years had the highest projected prevalence of 20%. In total, almost five million people are forecast to be classified as morbidly obese across the three countries in 2035.
病态肥胖（身体质量指数 ⩾40kg/m）比肥胖（身体质量指数 ⩾30kg/m2 且 <40kg/m2）带来更高的非传染性疾病风险，与更复杂的健康问题和挑战相关，对卫生系统造成的经济影响也更大。尽管肥胖趋势此前已被预测到 2035 年，但这些预测并未将病态肥胖与肥胖区分开来。因此，本研究对英国病态肥胖的流行情况和发展趋势进行了补充研究。：英格兰、威尔士（2004-2014 年）和苏格兰（2008-2014 年）年龄 ⩾15 岁人群的个体体重指数数据来自全国调查，按性别和 5 岁年龄组（如 15-19 岁）分层，然后汇总计算每个年龄和性别组的健康体重、超重、肥胖和病态肥胖的年度分布。对这些分布拟合分类多变量非线性回归模型，以预测 2035 年的趋势。：预计到 2035 年，苏格兰、英格兰和威尔士的病态肥胖患病率将分别上升到 5%、8%和 11%。威尔士 55-64 岁女性的预计患病率最高，为 20%。总的来说，到 2035 年，预计这三个国家将有近 500 万人被归类为病态肥胖。
