Builes-Jaramillo Alejandro, Ramos Antônio M T, Poveda Germán
Department of Geosciences and Environment, Facultad de Minas, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medellín, Carrera 80 x Calle 65, 050041, Medellín, Colombia.
National Institute for Space Research-INPE, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil.
Chaos. 2018 Aug;28(8):085705. doi: 10.1063/1.5020502.
The present work uses a new approach to causal inference between complex systems called the Recurrence Measure of Conditional Dependence () based on the recurrence plots theory, in order to study the role of the Amazon River basin (AM) as a land-atmosphere bridge between the Niño 3.0 region in the Pacific Ocean and the Tropical North Atlantic. Two anomalous droughts in the Amazon River basin were selected, one mainly attributed to the warming of the Tropical North Atlantic (2005) and the other to a warm phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (2010). The results of the RMCD analysis evidence the distinctive behavior in the causal information transferred between the two oceanic regions during the two extreme droughts, suggesting that the land-atmosphere bridge operating over the AM is an active hydroclimate mechanism at interannual timescales, and that the analysis may be an ancillary resort to complement early warning systems.
本研究采用一种基于递归图理论的名为条件依赖递归测度（RMCD）的新方法，用于复杂系统间的因果推断，以研究亚马孙河流域（AM）作为太平洋尼诺3.0区与热带北大西洋之间陆 - 气桥梁的作用。选取了亚马孙河流域的两次异常干旱，一次主要归因于热带北大西洋变暖（2005年），另一次归因于厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动的暖相位（2010年）。RMCD分析结果表明，在两次极端干旱期间，两个海洋区域之间传递的因果信息存在独特行为，这表明在年际时间尺度上，作用于亚马孙河流域的陆 - 气桥梁是一种活跃的水文气候机制，并且该分析可能是补充早期预警系统的辅助手段。
