Barichivich Jonathan, Gloor Emanuel, Peylin Philippe, Brienen Roel J W, Schöngart Jochen, Espinoza Jhan Carlo, Pattnayak Kanhu C
Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile.
Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile.
Sci Adv. 2018 Sep 19;4(9):eaat8785. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aat8785. eCollection 2018 Sep.
The Amazon basin is the largest watershed on Earth. Although the variability of the Amazon hydrological cycle has been increasing since the late 1990s, its underlying causes have remained elusive. We use water levels in the Amazon River to quantify changes in extreme events and then analyze their cause. Despite continuing research emphasis on droughts, the largest change over recent decades is a marked increase in very severe floods. Increased flooding is linked to a strengthening of the Walker circulation, resulting from strong tropical Atlantic warming and tropical Pacific cooling. Atlantic warming due to combined anthropogenic and natural factors has contributed to enhance the change in atmospheric circulation. Whether this anomalous increase in flooding will last depends on the evolution of the tropical inter-ocean temperature difference.
亚马逊流域是地球上最大的流域。尽管自20世纪90年代末以来，亚马逊水文循环的变率一直在增加，但其根本原因仍不明朗。我们利用亚马逊河的水位来量化极端事件的变化，然后分析其成因。尽管一直以来研究重点都在干旱上，但近几十年来最大的变化是极其严重的洪水显著增加。洪水增加与沃克环流增强有关，这是由热带大西洋强烈变暖以及热带太平洋变冷导致的。人为因素和自然因素共同作用导致的大西洋变暖加剧了大气环流的变化。这种洪水异常增加的情况是否会持续取决于热带海洋温差的演变。
