US Geological Survey, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA.
Biol Lett. 2018 Sep;14(9). doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2018.0342.
Species vulnerability to climate change involves an interaction between the magnitude of change (exposure) and a species's tolerance to change. We evaluated fish species vulnerability to predicted stream temperature increases by examining warming tolerances across the Wyoming fish assemblage. Warming tolerance combines stream temperature with a thermal tolerance metric to estimate how much warming beyond current conditions a species can withstand. Brown trout, rainbow trout and burbot had the lowest warming tolerances and the highest proportion of currently occupied sites that will become unsuitable under predicted temperature increases. These most vulnerable species were coldwater species, but had neither the lowest thermal tolerances nor would they experience the greatest temperature increases. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interaction of exposure and warming tolerance when predicting climate change vulnerability and demonstrate an approach that can be applied broadly.
物种对气候变化的脆弱性涉及变化幅度（暴露）与物种对变化的耐受能力之间的相互作用。我们通过检查怀俄明州鱼类组合的变暖耐受能力来评估鱼类物种对预测的溪流温度升高的脆弱性。变暖耐受能力将溪流温度与热耐受度量结合起来，以估计一个物种在当前条件之外能够承受多少升温。褐鳟、虹鳟和白北鲑的变暖耐受能力最低，目前占据的栖息地在预测的温度升高下变得不适宜的比例最高。这些最脆弱的物种是冷水物种，但它们的热耐受能力既不是最低的，也不会经历最大的温度升高。我们的研究结果强调了在预测气候变化脆弱性时考虑暴露和变暖耐受能力相互作用的重要性，并展示了一种可以广泛应用的方法。
