Origin and dissemination of hepatitis B virus genotype C in East Asia revealed by phylodynamic analysis and historical correlates.

Hepatitis B virus disease progression in East Asia is most frequently associated with genotype C (HBV/C). The increasing availability of HBV/C genetic sequences and detailed annotations provides an opportunity to investigate the epidemiological factors underlying its evolutionary history. In this study, the Bayesian phylogeography framework was used to investigate the origins and patterns in spatial dissemination of HBV/C by analyzing East Asian sequences obtained from 1992 to 2010. The most recent common ancestor of HBV/C was traced back to the early 1900s in China, where it eventually diverged into two major lineages during the 1930s-1960s that gave rise to distinct epidemic waves spreading exponentially to other East Asian countries and the USA. Demographic inference of viral effective population size over time indicated similar dynamics for both lineages, characterized by exponential growth since the early 1980s, followed by a significant bottleneck in 2003 and another increase after 2004. Although additional factors cannot be ruled out, we provide evidence to suggest this bottleneck was the result of limited human movement from/to China during the SARS outbreak in 2003. This is the first extensive evolutionary study of HBV/C in East Asia as well as the first to assess more realistic spatial ecological influences between co-circulating infectious diseases.