Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Tallahassee, FL 32310, United States.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Tallahassee, FL 32310, United States.
Accid Anal Prev. 2018 Dec;121:1-13. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2018.08.031. Epub 2018 Sep 8.
The increase in 65 years and older population in the United States compels the investigation of the crashes involving all aging (65+) roadway users (drivers, passengers, bicyclists, and pedestrians) in order to ensure their safety. As such, the objective of this research is to provide a spatiotemporal comparative investigation of the crashes involving these aging roadway users in Florida via concurrently using the same set of predictors in order to obtain comparable findings among them. First, a new metric, namely Crash Rate Difference (CRD) approach is developed, which enables one to capture potential spatial and temporal (e.g., weekend and weekday) variations in crash rates of aging user-involved crashes. Second, a multivariate random parameter Tobit model is utilized to determine the factors that drive both the crash occurrence probability and the crash rate of 65+ roadway users, accounting for the unobserved heterogeneity. Findings show that there are statistically significant heterogeneous effects of predictors on the crash rates of different roadway users, which evidences the unobserved heterogeneity across observations. Results also indicate that the presence of facilities such as hospitals, religious facilities, or supermarkets is very influential on crash rates of 65+ roadway users, advocating that roadways around these facilities should be particularly scrutinized by road safety stakeholders. Interestingly, the effect of these facilities on crashes also differs significantly between weekdays and weekends. Moreover, the roadway segments with high crash rates vary temporally depending on whether it is a weekday or a weekend. These findings regarding the spatiotemporal variations clearly indicate the need to develop and design better traffic safety measures and plans addressing these specific roadway segments, which can be tailored to alleviate traffic safety problems for 65+ roadway users.
美国 65 岁及以上人口的增加，促使人们调查涉及所有老龄化（65 岁及以上）道路使用者（司机、乘客、骑自行车的人和行人）的事故，以确保他们的安全。因此，本研究的目的是通过同时使用相同的一组预测因素，对佛罗里达州涉及这些老龄化道路使用者的事故进行时空比较调查，以获得他们之间可比的发现。首先，开发了一种新的度量标准，即碰撞率差异（CRD）方法，该方法可以捕捉到老龄化用户碰撞的碰撞率的潜在时空（例如周末和工作日）变化。其次，利用多元随机参数 Tobit 模型来确定导致 65 岁以上道路使用者发生碰撞的概率和碰撞率的因素，同时考虑到未观察到的异质性。研究结果表明，预测因素对不同道路使用者的碰撞率存在显著的异质效应，这表明观察结果之间存在未观察到的异质性。结果还表明，医院、宗教设施或超市等设施的存在对 65 岁以上道路使用者的碰撞率有很大影响，这表明道路安全利益相关者应该特别关注这些设施周围的道路。有趣的是，这些设施对事故的影响在工作日和周末之间也有很大的差异。此外，根据是工作日还是周末，高碰撞率的路段在时间上也有所不同。这些关于时空变化的发现清楚地表明，需要制定和设计更好的交通安全措施和计划，以解决这些特定的道路路段的问题，可以根据这些措施和计划来缓解 65 岁以上道路使用者的交通安全问题。
