持照联邦枪支供应商对与枪支相关的死亡率的影响。

Impact of licensed federal firearm suppliers on firearm-related mortality.

机构信息

From the Division of Pediatric Surgery (S.D.C.), Division of General Surgery, Department of Surgery (Z.J.K., K.S.), Stanford School of Medicine, and Department of Statistics (S.M.), Stanford University, Stanford, California.

出版信息

J Trauma Acute Care Surg. 2019 Jan;86(1):123-127. doi: 10.1097/TA.0000000000002067.

DOI:10.1097/TA.0000000000002067

PMID:30212424

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Legal firearm sales occur largely through suppliers that have Federal Firearm Licensees (FFLs). Since FFL density might reflect ease-of-access to firearm purchases, we hypothesized that the number of FFL dealers would be associated with firearm-related deaths. We further hypothesized that licensee-type subsets would be associated with differential risks for gun-related deaths.

METHODS

We used data from the National Center for Health Statistics National Vital Statistics System (2008-2014) and national data on Federal Firearms Licensees for 2014. Correlation analysis and linear regression analysis were performed to determine the relationship between different licensee types and firearm-related deaths. We controlled for population, number of statewide registered firearms, and the density of other types of FFLs.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 65,297 FFLs. There was a moderate correlation (R = 0.53, ρ = 0.48) between total FFL density and firearm-related death rates. Further analysis by type of firearm-related death showed a strong correlation (R = 0.81, ρ = 0.76) between total FFL density and firearm-related suicide rates. No correlation was found between total FFL density and firearm-related homicide rate. Among individual FFL types, FFL02 (firearm dealing pawnshop) density was the only FFL-type found to be correlated with firearm-related death rates. We found a strong correlation between FFL02 density and overall firearm-related death rate (R = 0.69, ρ = 0.78) and firearm-related suicide rate (R = 0.72, ρ = 0.78). Linear regression analysis showed that even while controlling for number of registered firearms and population, the number of firearm-dealing pawnshops remained significantly associated with overall firearm-related deaths and firearm-related suicides.

CONCLUSION

Access to legally distributed firearms is associated with firearm-related death rates, particularly firearm-related suicides. Specifically, firearm-dealing pawnshops were associated with suicide-related deaths. These findings suggest that deeper exploration of legal firearm access and firearm-related injuries would benefit discussion of preventative measures.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic, Level V.

摘要

背景

合法的枪支销售主要通过拥有联邦枪支许可证（FFL）的供应商进行。由于 FFL 的密度可能反映了购买枪支的便利性，我们假设 FFL 经销商的数量与枪支相关的死亡事件有关。我们进一步假设，许可证类型的子集与枪支相关死亡的风险差异有关。

方法

我们使用了来自国家卫生统计中心国家生命统计系统（2008-2014 年）的数据和 2014 年全国联邦枪支许可证的数据。进行了相关分析和线性回归分析，以确定不同许可证类型与枪支相关死亡之间的关系。我们控制了人口、全州注册枪支数量和其他类型 FFL 的密度。

结果

我们共确定了 65297 家 FFL。FFL 密度与枪支相关死亡率之间存在中度相关性（R=0.53，ρ=0.48）。通过枪支相关死因进一步分析表明，FFL 密度与枪支相关自杀率之间存在强相关性（R=0.81，ρ=0.76）。FFL 密度与枪支相关凶杀率之间没有相关性。在个别 FFL 类型中，FFL02（枪支交易当铺）密度是唯一与枪支相关死亡率相关的 FFL 类型。我们发现 FFL02 密度与总体枪支相关死亡率（R=0.69，ρ=0.78）和枪支相关自杀率（R=0.72，ρ=0.78）之间存在很强的相关性。线性回归分析表明，即使在控制了注册枪支数量和人口数量的情况下，枪支交易当铺的数量仍与总体枪支相关死亡和枪支相关自杀事件显著相关。