Prediction of overall survival after re-irradiation with stereotactic body radiation therapy for pancreatic cancer with a novel prognostic model (the SCAD score).

PURPOSE

To develop a predictive model for stratification of patients with pancreatic cancer who may achieve survival benefits from re-irradiation with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT).

METHODS

The score was developed based on clinical predictors of OS in 31 patients receiving two courses of SBRT with Cox proportional hazards model. Results were then validated in another cohort with 11 participants to assess the performance of the score.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, the median BED of the first and second SBRT was 59.5 Gy (48-85.5 Gy) and 50.2 Gy (43.7-66.9 Gy) in 5-8 fractions, while in the validation cohort, the median BED of the first and second SBRT was 59.5 Gy (52.5-66.9 Gy) and 47.7 Gy (40.6-54.8 Gy) in 5-8 fractions. The interval between the first and second SBRT of the training cohort and validation cohort was 10.5 months (6.1-24.3 months) and 12.8 months (6.5-29.1 months), respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that tumor stage (P = 0.005), BED (P = 0.006) and CA19-9 response (P = 0.04) were significantly predictive of overall survival, which formed SCAD score (named after the initials of factors). Patients with the score < 3 points had a superior OS compared with those with the score ≥ 3 points in the validation cohort (median OS has not been reached vs. 15.9 months, P = 0.032).

CONCLUSIONS

The SCAD score may have the potential to identify individuals benefiting from re-SBRT and be a step toward more personalized medicine.