Centre for Public Policy Research, Ernakulam, Kerala, India.
International Research, Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, Washington DC, USA.
Tob Control. 2019 Sep;28(5):506-512. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054479. Epub 2018 Sep 15.
To examine the potential impact of the goods and services tax (GST) on price, consumption and tax revenue from tobacco products in India and across states.
Data on prices, tax rates and tax revenue are used to estimate a benchmark scenario prior to the GST implementation in 2017-2018. Using own-price elasticity of demand for tobacco products, we estimate the impact of GST at the state level and the aggregate state-wise impact to obtain the national level impact.
We predict that the statutory GST rate of 28% plus compensation cess will increase the price of cigarettes, and smokeless tobacco by 0.18%, 8.8% and 6%, respectively, and, as a result, it will reduce the weighted average consumption by 0.3%, 10% and 6% and increase tax revenue by 0.17%, 35% and 4.7%, respectively. Most states will experience a fall in tax revenue from tobacco products by more than 50% compared with the value-added tax revenue they collected pre-GST. The GST compensation cess will have to be used to compensate states' revenue shortfalls.
The GST has increased the complexity of the tax system for tobacco products. In particular, for cigarettes, the specific cess constitutes the majority of tax revenue, and therefore, it must be revised regularly to protect revenue and keep real prices from falling. In addition, India should reintroduce excise taxation on all tobacco products, at least in part, on top of the GST, to make them less affordable and to smooth the transition after the expiration of the compensation cess.
研究商品及服务税（GST）对印度及各邦烟草产品价格、消费和税收的潜在影响。
使用价格、税率和税收数据来估算 GST 于 2017-2018 年实施前的基准情景。我们利用烟草产品的自身需求价格弹性，对 GST 在邦一级的影响进行了估计，并对各邦的综合影响进行了估算，以获得全国层面的影响。
我们预测，法定 GST 税率为 28%加补偿消费税，将分别使香烟和无烟烟草的价格上涨 0.18%、8.8%和 6%，从而使加权平均消费分别减少 0.3%、10%和 6%，税收分别增加 0.17%、35%和 4.7%。与 GST 前各邦征收的增值税收入相比，大多数邦的烟草产品税收收入将下降 50%以上。GST 补偿消费税将不得不被用于弥补邦政府的收入缺口。
GST 增加了烟草产品税收制度的复杂性。特别是对香烟而言，特定消费税构成了大部分税收，因此必须定期修订，以保护收入并防止实际价格下降。此外，印度应该在 GST 之上重新对所有烟草产品征收消费税，至少部分征收消费税，以降低其可负担性，并在补偿消费税期满后平稳过渡。
