School of Arts and Social Sciences, Department of Economics, City University, London, UK (FW).
Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (BD).
Med Decis Making. 2018 Nov;38(8):954-967. doi: 10.1177/0272989X18797588. Epub 2018 Sep 18.
OBJECTIVES: To assess the external validity of mapping algorithms for predicting EQ-5D-3L utility values from EORTC QLQ-C30 responses not previously validated and to assess whether statistical models not previously applied are better suited for mapping the EORTC QLQ-C30 to the EQ-5D-3L. METHODS: In total, 3866 observations for 1719 patients from a longitudinal study (Cancer 2015) were used to validate existing algorithms. Predictive accuracy was compared to previously validated algorithms using root mean squared error, mean absolute error across the EQ-5D-3L range, and for 10 tumor-type specific samples as well as using differences between estimated quality-adjusted life years. Thirteen new algorithms were estimated using a subset of the Cancer 2015 data (3203 observations for 1419 patients) applying various linear, response mapping, beta, and mixture models. Validation was performed using 2 data sets composed of patients with varying disease severity not used in the estimation and all available algorithms ranked on their performance. RESULTS: None of the 5 existing algorithms offer an improvement in predictive accuracy over preferred algorithms from previous validation studies. Of the newly estimated algorithms, a 2-part beta model performed the best across the validation criteria and in data sets composed of patients with different levels of disease severity. Validation results did, however, vary widely between the 2 data sets, and the most accurate algorithm appears to depend on health state severity as the distribution of observed EQ-5D-3L values varies. Linear models performed better for patients in relatively good health, whereas beta, mixture, and response mapping models performed better for patients in worse health. CONCLUSION: The most appropriate mapping algorithm to apply in practice may depend on the disease severity of the patient sample whose utility values are being predicted.
目的:评估未经验证的 EORTC QLQ-C30 反应预测 EQ-5D-3L 效用值的映射算法的外部有效性,并评估以前未应用的统计模型是否更适合将 EORTC QLQ-C30 映射到 EQ-5D-3L。
方法:共使用来自纵向研究(癌症 2015 年)的 1719 名患者的 3866 个观察值来验证现有算法。通过均方根误差、EQ-5D-3L 范围内的平均绝对误差以及 10 个肿瘤类型特定样本来比较预测准确性,与以前验证的算法进行比较,同时还比较了估计的质量调整生命年之间的差异。使用癌症 2015 年数据的一个子集(1419 名患者的 3203 个观察值)估计了 13 种新算法,应用了各种线性、反应映射、β和混合模型。使用未用于估计的具有不同疾病严重程度的患者的两个数据集和所有可用算法对验证进行了验证,并根据其性能对算法进行了排名。
结果:在预测准确性方面,没有一个现有的算法比以前验证研究中的首选算法有所提高。在新估计的算法中,两部分β模型在所有验证标准和由不同疾病严重程度患者组成的数据集上表现最佳。然而,验证结果在两个数据集之间差异很大,最准确的算法似乎取决于健康状况的严重程度,因为观察到的 EQ-5D-3L 值的分布有所不同。线性模型在健康状况相对较好的患者中表现更好,而β、混合和反应映射模型在健康状况较差的患者中表现更好。
结论:在实践中应用的最合适的映射算法可能取决于正在预测其效用值的患者样本的疾病严重程度。
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