Jiang Xiyi, Li Lu, Tang Huijuan, Chen Tianhui
Group of Molecular Epidemiology & Cancer Precision Prevention, Institute of Occupational Diseases, Zhejiang Academy of Medical Sciences, Hangzhou 310013, China.
School of Basic Medical Sciences, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou 310053, China.
Zhejiang Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban. 2018 May 25;47(2):194-200. doi: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9292.2018.04.14.
Colorectal cancer is caused by the interaction of genetic and environment factors. Domestic and foreign scholars have attempted to develop several colorectal cancer risk prediction models, in order to identity risk factors, to screen for high risk population and evaluate the risk of developing colorectal cancer, so as to provide personalized screening protocols for individuals with different risk, and eventually reduce the incidence and mortality rate of colorectal cancer. Currently, the common colorectal cancer risk prediction models were mainly developed based on case-control study and cohort study. Models developed in European and American regions and Asia (excluding China) only include common risk factors, while Chinese models also include hereditary factors on the bases of common risk factors. However, the development and verification of each model are mainly based on local population, whether it can be applied for other population need to be determined. This article reviews the development, validation and evaluation of the risk prediction models, in order to provide a basis for developing more precise risk prediction models for colorectal cancer.
结直肠癌是由遗传和环境因素相互作用引起的。国内外学者试图开发多种结直肠癌风险预测模型，以识别风险因素，筛查高危人群并评估患结直肠癌的风险，从而为不同风险个体提供个性化筛查方案，最终降低结直肠癌的发病率和死亡率。目前，常见的结直肠癌风险预测模型主要基于病例对照研究和队列研究开发。欧美地区及亚洲（不包括中国）开发的模型仅包括常见风险因素，而中国的模型在常见风险因素基础上还纳入了遗传因素。然而，每个模型的开发和验证主要基于当地人群，其是否适用于其他人群尚待确定。本文综述了风险预测模型的开发、验证和评估，以便为开发更精确的结直肠癌风险预测模型提供依据。
