Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen Marine Research, P.O. Box 57, 1780AB, Den Helder, the Netherlands.
Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen Marine Research, P.O. Box 57, 1780AB, Den Helder, the Netherlands.
Mar Environ Res. 2018 Oct;141:264-274. doi: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.09.008. Epub 2018 Sep 7.
For oil spill responses, assessment of the potential environmental exposure and impacts of a spill is crucial. Due to a lack of chronic toxicity data, acute data is used together with precautionary assumptions. The effect on the Arctic keystone (copepod) species Calanus hyperboreus and Calanus glacialis populations is compared using two approaches: a precautionary approach where all exposed individuals die above a defined threshold concentration and a refined (full-dose-response) approach. For this purpose a matrix population model parameterised with data from the literature is used. Population effects of continuous exposures with varying durations were modelled on a range of concentrations. Just above the chronic No Observed Effect Concentration (which is field relevant) the estimated population recovery duration of the precautionary approach was more than 300 times that of the refined approach. With increasing exposure concentration and duration, the effect in the refined approach converges to the maximum effect assumed in the precautionary approach.
对于溢油事故的应对，评估溢油事故对环境的潜在暴露和影响至关重要。由于缺乏慢性毒性数据，因此急性数据与预防假设一起使用。本文使用两种方法比较了北极关键物种（桡足类）北极磷虾和北方磷虾种群的影响：一种是当所有暴露个体超过定义的阈值浓度时全部死亡的预防方法，另一种是改良的（全剂量反应）方法。为此，使用基于文献数据的矩阵种群模型进行参数化。在一系列浓度下，对不同持续时间的连续暴露的种群效应进行建模。在慢性无观察效应浓度（与现场相关）略高的情况下，预防方法的种群恢复持续时间估计比改良方法长 300 多倍。随着暴露浓度和时间的增加，改良方法中的影响逐渐接近预防方法中假设的最大影响。
