《澳大利亚全国枪支协议对自杀和他杀死亡率的影响，1978-2015》。
The Effect of the Australian National Firearms Agreement on Suicide and Homicide Mortality, 1978-2015.
机构信息
Stuart Gilmour is with the Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan. Kittima Wattanakamolkul and Maaya Kita Sugai are with the Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 2018 Nov;108(11):1511-1516. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2018.304640. Epub 2018 Sep 25.
OBJECTIVES
To investigate the impact of the Australian National Firearms Agreement (NFA) on suicide and assault mortality.
METHODS
We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional difference-in-difference study of the impact of the NFA on national mortality rates in the Australian population from 1961 to 2015.
RESULTS
The NFA had no additional statistically observable impact on firearm-related suicides in women (P = .09) and was associated with a statistically significant increase in the trend in men (P < .001). Trends in non-firearm-related suicide deaths declined by 4.4% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.1%, 4.8%) in men after the introduction of the NFA and increased in women by 0.3% (95% CI = 0.1%, 0.7%). Trends in non-firearm-related homicides declined by 2.2% per year (95% CI = 1.5, 3.8%) in women and 2.9% per year (95% CI = 2.0%, 3.7%) in men after the introduction of the NFA, with a statistically significant improvement in trends for women (P = .04) but not for men (P = .80).
CONCLUSIONS
The NFA had no statistically observable additional impact on suicide or assault mortality attributable to firearms in Australia.
目的
调查澳大利亚全国枪支协议（NFA）对自杀和攻击死亡率的影响。
方法
我们对 NFA 对澳大利亚人口 1961 年至 2015 年全国死亡率的影响进行了回顾性横断面差异-差异研究。
结果
NFA 对女性的枪支相关自杀事件没有额外的统计学上可观察到的影响（P=0.09），但与男性的趋势呈统计学显著增加相关（P<0.001）。NFA 引入后，男性的非枪支相关自杀死亡趋势每年下降 4.4%（95%置信区间 [CI] = 4.1%，4.8%），而女性则每年增加 0.3%（95% CI = 0.1%，0.7%）。NFA 引入后，女性的非枪支相关杀人案趋势每年下降 2.2%（95% CI = 1.5%，3.8%），男性每年下降 2.9%（95% CI = 2.0%，3.7%），女性的趋势明显改善（P=0.04），但男性则没有（P=0.80）。
结论
NFA 对澳大利亚归因于枪支的自杀或攻击死亡率没有统计学上可观察到的额外影响。
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