Zhao Mengtian, Rosoff Heather, John Richard S
Department of Psychology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Risk Anal. 2019 Mar;39(3):535-552. doi: 10.1111/risa.13205. Epub 2018 Oct 5.
Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.
以往的研究在不同场景下评估了公众对自然灾害的风险认知和应对方式；然而，这些研究大多是针对单一情景开展的，或是在自然灾害发生后进行的。为了更好地理解与自然灾害相关的情感、风险认知和行为意图之间的动态关系，本研究采用了一个天气强度不断升级的模拟情景，并开展了一项自然实验，以便比较在一场受到国家媒体广泛报道的严重龙卷风事件前后公众的反应。本研究还对警告信息的展示方式进行了操控，并调查了警告系统的显示格式是否会影响公众反应。结果表明：（1）随着天气状况恶化，情感、风险认知和行为意图都有所升级；（2）在风暴发展的先前阶段的反应可以预测后续阶段的反应；（3）消极情感可预测风险认知。此外，在接触到一场实际龙卷风灾难的媒体报道后，风险认知和行为意图都增强了。然而，显示格式的操控并未影响行为反应。本研究为公众对灾前警告的认知以及接触实际灾难事件的媒体报道所产生的影响提供了见解。
