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基于 ISM 的化工园区员工应急风险感知系统动力学模型。

A system dynamics model based on ISM for risk perception in emergency by employees in chemical industrial parks.

机构信息

College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Hazardous Chemicals Safety and Control, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 28;14(1):25767. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-77445-z.

Abstract

Risk perception is one of the factors that guide human behavior in the workplace. In accident prevention and emergency response, the risk perception of employees affects the safety behaviour and efficiency of emergency disposal. Besides, risk perception is a complicated process restricted by many influencing factors. The study aims to identify the most important factors affecting risk perception. This study had three phases. In the first, factors affecting the risk perception were extracted based on the questionnaire survey and the expert scoring. Then, the Interpretive Structure Model (ISM) was used to stratify the 14 influencing factors of risk perception and obtain a hierarchical structure chart. Finally, by analyzing the influence paths in the ISM, the system dynamics feedback loop diagram was constructed. The model took the state variable "risk perception→ risk response→ risk identification→ risk communication→ risk perception" as the main circular loop, and was supplemented and perfected by multiple feeder loop circuits. Research indicates risk experience is the most fundamental factor affecting risk perception. In the aspect of sensitivity analysis, the study shows that the risk perception of employees is related to the distance of the risk source. Its effectiveness in quantifying qualitative data, identifying influential factors, and establishing cause-effect relationships make it a valuable tool for enhancing risk perception in chemical industry park.

摘要

风险感知是指导人类在工作场所行为的因素之一。在事故预防和应急响应中,员工的风险感知会影响安全行为和应急处置效率。此外,风险感知是一个受许多影响因素限制的复杂过程。本研究旨在确定影响风险感知的最重要因素。该研究分为三个阶段。在第一阶段,基于问卷调查和专家评分,提取了影响风险感知的因素。然后,使用解释结构模型(ISM)对 14 个风险感知影响因素进行分层,得到层次结构图。最后,通过分析 ISM 中的影响路径,构建了系统动力学反馈环图。该模型以“风险感知→风险应对→风险识别→风险沟通→风险感知”为主要循环回路,通过多个馈送回路进行补充和完善。研究表明,风险体验是影响风险感知的最根本因素。在敏感性分析方面,研究表明员工的风险感知与其风险源的距离有关。它在量化定性数据、识别影响因素和建立因果关系方面的有效性使其成为增强化工园区风险感知的有价值工具。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9e95/11519441/6cbe6fad3fe3/41598_2024_77445_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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