Barbosa Susana, Huisman Johan Alexander, Azevedo Eduardo Brito
INESC TEC - INESC Technology and Science, Porto, Portugal.
Agrosphere Institute (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Juelich, Germany.
J Environ Radioact. 2018 Dec;195:72-78. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2018.09.022. Epub 2018 Oct 4.
Monitoring of environmental radioactivity for the purpose of earthquake prediction requires the discrimination of anomalies of non-tectonic origin from seismically-induced anomalies. This is a challenging task as time series of environmental radioactivity display a complex temporal pattern reflecting a wide range of different physical processes, including meteorological and surface effects. The present study is based on the detailed time series of gamma radiation from the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site in the Azores, and on very high resolution precipitation intensity and soil moisture time series. The results show that an abrupt shift in the average level of the gamma radiation time series previously reported as a potential earthquake precursor can also be explained by a corresponding abrupt change in soil moisture. It was concluded that the reduction of false positive earthquake precursors requires the detailed assessment of both precipitation and soil moisture conditions at high temporal resolution.
为了地震预测而对环境放射性进行监测，需要区分非构造源异常与地震诱发异常。这是一项具有挑战性的任务，因为环境放射性的时间序列呈现出复杂的时间模式，反映了包括气象和地表效应在内的广泛不同物理过程。本研究基于亚速尔群岛东北大西洋（ENA）站点的伽马辐射详细时间序列，以及非常高分辨率的降水强度和土壤湿度时间序列。结果表明，先前报告为潜在地震前兆的伽马辐射时间序列平均水平的突然变化，也可以用土壤湿度的相应突然变化来解释。得出的结论是，减少误报的地震前兆需要在高时间分辨率下详细评估降水和土壤湿度条件。
