GLOBE, Italian Working Group on Evidence Based Orthopaedics, Rome, Italy.
Artrogruppo, Casa di Cura San Feliciano, Rome, Italy.
Int Orthop. 2019 Jan;43(1):133-138. doi: 10.1007/s00264-018-4165-7. Epub 2018 Oct 6.
Annual rates of knee arthroplasty are increasing in all developed countries, imposing a significant economic and organizational burden; it is crucial to forecast the future need for knee arthroplasty, to assist stakeholders in planning strategies and investments, especially in a country like Italy, with the largest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe. Few epidemiological studies have been performed worldwide to estimate the demand for future knee replacement, and a variety of methods have been proposed.
We investigated the epidemiology of knee arthroplasty performed in Italy in the last 15 years and projected incidence rates up to the year 2050, utilizing, comparing, and adapting the available methodologies.
From 2001 to 2016, 812,639 primary TKA were performed in Italy on patients over 40. The total number of surgeries increased by 262% with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%.
Adopting the best fitting projection method, an increase of 45% in incidence rate is expected for 2050.
在所有发达国家，膝关节置换术的年增长率都在增加，这给经济和组织带来了巨大的负担。因此，预测未来膝关节置换术的需求至关重要，这有助于利益相关者规划策略和投资，尤其是在意大利这样的国家，其老年公民的比例在欧洲是最高的。全球范围内只有少数几项流行病学研究来评估未来膝关节置换的需求，并且已经提出了多种方法。
我们研究了过去 15 年在意大利进行的膝关节置换手术的流行病学，并利用、比较和调整现有的方法，预测了到 2050 年的发病率。
从 2001 年到 2016 年，意大利有 812639 名 40 岁以上的患者接受了初次全膝关节置换术。手术总数增加了 262%，年平均增长率为 6.6%。
采用最佳拟合预测方法，预计 2050 年发病率将增加 45%。
