Centre for Water Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, Devon, EX4 4QF, United Kingdom.
Department of Engineering and the Built Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, Essex, CM1 1SQ, United Kingdom.
Water Res. 2018 Dec 15;147:1-12. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2018.09.032. Epub 2018 Sep 28.
Reliability, risk and resilience are strongly related concepts and have been widely utilised in the context of water infrastructure performance analysis. However, there are many ways in which each measure can be formulated (depending on the reliability of what, risk to what from what, and resilience of what to what) and the relationships will differ depending on the formulations used. This research has developed a framework to explore the ways in which reliability, risk and resilience may be formulated, identifying possible components and knowledge required for calculation of each and formalising the conceptual relationships between specified and general resilience. This utilises the Safe & SuRe framework, which shows how threats to a water system can result in consequences for society, the economy and the environment, to enable the formulations to be derived in a logical manner and to ensure consistency in any comparisons. The framework is used to investigate the relationship between levels of reliability, risk and resilience provided by multiple operational control and design strategies for an urban wastewater system case study. The results highlight that, although reliability, risk and resilience values may exhibit correlations, designing for just one is insufficient: reliability, risk and resilience are complementary rather than interchangeable measures and one cannot be used as a substitute for another. Furthermore, it is shown that commonly used formulations address only a small fraction of the possibilities and a more comprehensive assessment of a system's response to threats is necessary to provide a comprehensive understanding of risk and resilience.
可靠性、风险和弹性是密切相关的概念，已广泛应用于水基础设施性能分析的背景下。然而，每种措施的制定方式有很多种（取决于可靠性的是什么、风险的来源、弹性的目标），并且关系将取决于使用的公式。这项研究开发了一个框架来探索可靠性、风险和弹性可能的制定方式，确定每个的可能组成部分和所需知识，并正式化特定和通用弹性之间的概念关系。该框架利用 Safe & SuRe 框架，该框架展示了对水系统的威胁如何对社会、经济和环境造成后果，从而以逻辑方式推导出公式，并确保任何比较的一致性。该框架用于研究多个运营控制和设计策略为城市废水系统案例研究提供的可靠性、风险和弹性水平之间的关系。结果表明，尽管可靠性、风险和弹性值可能表现出相关性，但只为一个目标设计是不够的：可靠性、风险和弹性是互补的，而不是可互换的措施，一个不能替代另一个。此外，还表明常用的公式仅解决了可能性的一小部分，需要对系统对威胁的反应进行更全面的评估，才能全面了解风险和弹性。
