Tulen Anna D, van Wijhe Maarten, Korthals Altes Hester, McDonald Scott A, de Melker Hester E, Postma Maarten J, Wallinga Jacco
Centrum Infectieziektebestrijding, RIVM, Bilthoven, Nederland.
Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, Groningen Research Institute of Pharmacy, afd. FarmacoTherapie, -Epidemiologie en -Economie.
Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 2018 Sep 20;162:D2983.
To quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands.
Estimates based on model projections of historical morbidity data.
We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919-2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections.
In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 18,900 (95%-CI: 12,000-28,600) notified cases of diphtheria averted, 5100 (95%-CI: 2200-13,500) cases of poliomyelitis, and 1800 (95%-CI: 1000-3200) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 13700 (95%-CI: 1400-38,300) cases, while universal rubella vaccination averted 700 (95%-CI: 80-2300) cases.
These findings show that vaccination programmes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.
量化长期疫苗接种计划对荷兰法定报告病例的影响。
基于历史发病率数据模型预测的估计。
我们收集并数字化了荷兰1919 - 2015年期间以前无法获取的白喉、脊髓灰质炎、腮腺炎和风疹的月度病例报告。将考虑季节性、多年周期、长期趋势和自相关的泊松回归模型应用于疫苗接种前时期。避免的病例数通过基于模型预测的观察病例数与预期病例数之差来计算。
在大规模疫苗接种的前13年中，病例报告迅速下降，避免了18,900例（95%可信区间：12,000 - 28,600）白喉病例报告、5100例（95%可信区间：2200 - 13,500）脊髓灰质炎病例和1800例（95%可信区间：1000 - 3200）腮腺炎病例。11岁女孩接种风疹疫苗避免了13700例（95%可信区间：1400 - 38,300）病例，而风疹普遍接种避免了700例（95%可信区间：80 - 2300）病例。
这些发现表明疫苗接种计划对荷兰传染病的减少做出了重大贡献。
