Surveillance improves survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective population-based study.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the factors associated with survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the effect of HCC surveillance on survival.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective population-based cohort study of patients newly diagnosed with HCC in seven tertiary hospitals in Melbourne, 1 July 2012 - 30 June 2013.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Overall survival (maximum follow-up, 24 months); factors associated with HCC surveillance participation and survival.

RESULTS

272 people were diagnosed with incident HCC during the study period; the most common risk factors were hepatitis C virus infection (41%), alcohol-related liver disease (39%), and hepatitis B virus infection (22%). Only 40% of patients participated in HCC surveillance at the time of diagnosis; participation was significantly higher among patients with smaller median tumour size (participants, 2.8 cm; non-participants, 6.0 cm; P < 0.001) and earlier Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage disease (A/B, 59%; C/D, 25%; P < 0.001). Participation was higher among patients with compensated cirrhosis or hepatitis C infections; it was lower among those with alcohol-related liver disease or decompensated liver disease. Median overall survival time was 20.8 months; mean survival time was 18.1 months (95% CI, 16.6-19.6 months). Participation in HCC surveillance was associated with significantly lower mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.60; 95% CI, 0.38-0.93; P = 0.021), as were curative therapies (aHR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.19-0.58). Conversely, higher Child-Pugh class, alpha-fetoprotein levels over 400 kU/L, and later BCLC disease stages were each associated with higher mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival for patients with HCC is poor, but may be improved by surveillance, associated with the identification of earlier stage tumours, enabling curative therapies to be initiated.