Simulating consequences of choosing a breeding goal for organic dairy production.

In Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, the Nordic Total Merit index is used as the breeding selection tool for both organic and conventional dairy farmers based on common economic models for conventional dairy farming. Organic farming is based on the principles of organic agriculture (POA) defined by the International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements. These principles are not set up with an economic point of view, and therefore it may be questionable to use a breeding goal (BG) for organic dairy production based on economic models. In addition to economics and the principles of organic agriculture, it is important to look at farmers' preferences for improving BG traits when setting up a BG for organic farming. The aim of this research was to set up, simulate, and compare long-term effects of different BG for organic and conventional dairy production systems based on economic models, farmers' preferences, and POA, with particular emphasis on disease resistance or on roughage consumption and feed efficiency. The BG based on economic models and on farmers' preferences were taken from previous studies. The other BG were desired gains indices, set up by means of a questionnaire about relatedness between the POA and BG traits. Each BG was simulated in the stochastic simulation program ADAM. The BG based on POA, with particular emphasis on disease resistance or on roughage consumption and feed efficiency, caused favorable genetic gain in all 12 traits included in this study compared with 6 traits for the other BG. The BG based on POA, with particular emphasis on disease resistance or on roughage consumption and feed efficiency, were very different from BG for organic and conventional production based on economic models and farmers' preferences in both simulated genetic change and correlations between BG. The BG that was created based on the principles of organic agriculture could be used as a specific index for organic dairy farming in Denmark, but this index was economically not very sustainable. Hence, an intermediate breeding goal could be developed by breeding companies to address both economics and the principles of organic agriculture.